From Hawaii to Palm Springs — not bad to start the golf season as the PGA Tour heads to California this weekend. The biggest thing to note –especially when picking a long shot this week — is the event will be played across three courses in four days. The Peter Dye Stadium course will be played for a second time on the final day. There are plenty of big names here, including Scottie Scheffler, but we are more interested in a longer play. Here is the best American Express long shot bet for this week.
2024 The American Express Long Shot Bets
There’s a golfer currently sitting at 70-1 on PointsBet to win the American Express. He comes off two strong performances in Hawaii, losing strokes (barely) in just one key area. That’s not all Akshay Bhatia did, as he finished 2023 with six made cuts — including a 10th at the World Wide Technology. He comes off two straight finishes under 15th to start the 2024 season, angling for his first victory since last year’s Barracuda.
We have data on the Stadium Course, while the other two venues will be much looser in predicting. It’s defined more as a desert course overall, but there are certain areas where ball striking and putting will be the most important. The dichotomy of Scheffler right now allows some scoring opportunities for a weaker field like this. Scheffler still can’t putt, so getting ahead of par 5’s and scoring on par 3’s will allow any long shot to contend.
In just two events this year, Bhatia is gaining 0.83 strokes on the green. That type of putting is enough to keep any golfer in the event and probably would put Scheffler on Tiger Woods’ level. Bhatia can beat the field on the green, but he’s also doing it with tremendous accuracy and distance off the tee, especially with the driver. He’s comfortable and doesn’t fear anyone in this field. Let’s ride that hot flat stick all the way to victory and cash this +7000 ticket!
Best Long Shot Outright Winner: Akshay Bhatia (+7000, PointsBet)
Honorable Mention: Eric Cole (33-1 BetMGM)
Nobody at OddsShopper was on Eric Cole before me — ask Ben Rasa. Trust me, he doesn’t like giving me any compliments, but we talked about him through his rookie year. Cole has back-to-back top-20s and nearly scored an outright win. This is the field that he can take over, Scheffler included, as he’s shown to adapt to any conditions or course thrown his way. He sits at 33-1 and should fit exceptionally well on the Pete Dye course, especially playing it twice.
Cole is best to bet at +150 (BetMGM) to finish top 20, but he’s worth a play here to win outright. He comes off back-to-back top-15 finishes (14th, 13th) in Hawaii, gets to play against a weaker field and is on a course he fits better than most. Take Cole to win.
