All eyes descend on the PGA Tour this week with The Players Championship set to tee off. We could debate the merits of the “fifth major” tag but one thing is for sure and that is this is a marquee event with all the best on tour looking for an early season statement.
Unlike the other elevated events, this is a full field with players ranging from the elite to lesser known names looking for a miracle run. On the betting side we have ample options of guys that deserve to be on the card and could provide some value. Let’s dive into the course, skillset and most importantly the guys who we want to target for this week Players Championship.
If you’re looking to get some skin in the game on the PGA this week, check out a few of our market-based betting model’s top picks for free — or subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for all of our best bets, including every expert pick!
PGA Players Championship Odds, Picks & Betting Predictions for 2024
PGA Players Championship Odds & Tournament Preview
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +550 |
| Rory McIlroy | +1200 |
| Xander Schauffele | +2000 |
| Justin Thomas | +2200 |
| Max Homa | +2500 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +2500 |
| Viktor Hovland | +2500 |
| Collin Morikawa | +2800 |
| Jordan Spieth | +3000 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +3300 |
Just like Bay Hill last week a big positive is that we know all about TPC Sawgrass. The Pete Dye course is famous for the island green which can derail any round with a few water balls. As dramatic as that is there isn’t much to plan for besides don’t hit it in the water. What we can plan for is a technical layout that doesn’t allow you just to grip it and rip it so iron play will be key.
The Par 5’s are still out there and just like last week scoring on them is a key to success. Arnold Palmer winner Scottie Scheffler was -12 on the Par 5’s with zero bogeys last week and that was a main piece to taking down that tournament. One small thing to monitor is the weather as rain could be in the forecast making the course potentially softer and more receptive.
As I mentioned already, this isn’t a 70 man field so get ready for 144 golfers and a cut sweat on Friday surely to raise the blood pressure. The positive to this is everyone’s outright number is larger due to the fact you have to beat so many additional players, but of course hoisting the trophy is that much harder. It’s no surprise to see Scottie Scheffler as the overwhelming favorite considering he is the defending champ and won last week at Bay Hill. We certainly are going to have to try and get past him, and if successful here are a few names I think can get in the mix and potentially give us a big time outright ticket.
PGA Outright Pick #1: Justin Thomas
Not going to be alone with backing Justin Thomas this week, but digging into the top part of the board, he’s the guy I immediately gravitated to. Of course, Scheffler and Rory are there with the ability to take apart any field, but if not, it opens it up for a big batch of golfers sitting in the 20-1 range. Thomas was on everyone’s radar before a bad missed cut at Genesis in a field of just 69 golfers. He bounced back in a big way last week finishing 12th while gaining strokes across all four categories. A winner here in 2021 is another data point we won’t be too upset to see, even if that probably does factor into his number.
Searching the market, we can find a 22-1 out there, and that is a number where Thomas is a comfortable play. Again, he’s built to deal with the typical challenges a Pete Dye course presents, and given the unknown in weather, I like his ability around the greens if it gets nasty. A few water balls and the dream will be over, but if he keeps it dry, don’t be surprised to see him lurking on the leaderboard come Sunday.
PGA Players Championship Pick: Justin Thomas 22-1 FanDuel
PGA Outright Pick #2: Tony Finau
Like the rest of the golf world, I am waiting and waiting for that true breakthrough moment with Tony Finau. We certainly got through the he can’t win narrative, but the next step is taking down a major or an event of this caliber. We haven’t seen Finau yet during the Florida swing and that lack of recent form could be part of the reason we find an appealing 60-1 number in the market.
Last time Finau was in action he was looking to play a Scheffler like role and take down the Mexico Open as a favorite. He didn’t get it done but a 13th place finish while gaining across the board isn’t overly disappointing. The off the tee game and irons have been working for some time and it’s just a matter of can we get anything on these Bermuda greens. If Finau is able to dial in the short game there is no reason this week can’t be the moment we finally see Finau get to the next level. I’ll look to target him in various formats including at this outright number.
PGA Players Championship Pick: Tony Finau 60-1 FanDuel
PGA Outright Pick #3: Byeong Hun An
Normally a regular on my betting card, I actually haven’t bet An much this year. I certainly did back him at Sony where a playoff loss to Grayson Murray in heartbreaking fashion was a painful one to start the year. Still, if you look at the positives you find a golfer who has been in the hunt, and still playing good golf with his eighth place finish last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. An is looking for any PGA Tour win, and what a week it would be for him to finally grab one.
We’ve known for quite a while that for us to get a chance with An we need the putter to cooperate. Lately that’s been the case with strokes gained putting in 5 of the last 7 events. The off the tee game is consistently a positive, and around the green was already a strength of his game. If he can continue the form we’ve seen in 2024 already, there is no reason An can’t hang in despite the stakes and we can still grab a 75-1 in the market. I’ll be buying here on the South Korean and think he is one of many potential first-time winners who are dangerous this week at Sawgrass.
PGA Players Championship Pick: Byeong Hun An 75-1 FanDuel
OddsShopper’s PGA Betting Tools & Tips
Looking for more PGA predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down every tournament, so make sure to check out the rest of our PGA articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
