No teams in baseball had higher hopes in 2023 than the New York Mets and the San Diego Padres. Both organizations went on huge spending sprees, loading up on talent that fans and bettors thought would elevate the Mets and Padres to elite status. Nothing could be further from the truth, as both clubs have been mired in mediocrity for the entire first half of the season. However, both teams still have plenty of time to turn things around heading into the All-Star Break. Let’s take a look at Sunday’s Mets-Padres odds to make a prediction and pick the best MLB bet using OddsShopper’s market-based model!
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Best MLB Mets-Padres Betting Pick & Prediction: Scherzer Looks to Turn Things Around
Mets-Padres Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Mets: +110 | Padres: -130
Mets +1.5: -180 | Padres -1.5: +155
Over 8: -105 | Under 8: -115
The Mets did a ton of spending this offseason, but one holdover from a year ago is Max Scherzer. Scherzer aged well, throwing for a 2.29 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over 23 starts a year ago. Those numbers have dropped a bit in 2023, Scherzer’s age-38 season. He currently has a 4.03 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over 15 starts. His strikeout-to-walk ratio has dipped to 4.7 which is Scherzer’s lowest since an injury shortened 2020 season with the Washington Nationals. Those are still strong numbers, but well below par for a pitcher of Scherzer’s pedigree.
Nobody would expect that a start against the Padres would be favorable, but this matchup may actually be working in Scherzer’s favor on Sunday. The Padres are just 42-47 and in a dog fight to make the MLB postseason heading into the second half of the season. The results are well below expectation for the Padres who set up a strong pitching staff and an incredible lineup including Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts. The hope in San Diego is that their raw talent will eventually rise and they’ll ascend into the MLB West lead or a Wild Card spot.
MLB betting markets are still giving the Padres credit for their talent. The Mets come in as a slight betting underdog with Scherzer on the hill against Padres’ SP Joe Musgrove. However, the markets are slightly overvaluing Max’s ability to rack up strikeouts against this lineup. The MLB strikeout prop for Max Scherzer is at 6.5 (+115) at DraftKings, which is leaving a 4% edge on the table. OddsShopper’s market-based betting model uses the sharpest books to find the efficient price for every betting line. This MLB bet has true odds of +107, and it’s worth wagering about 1% of your bank roll if you’re using the Kelly Criterion staking method.
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Best Mets-Padres MLB Pick: Max Scherzer Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115) at DraftKings
