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Categories MLB

Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Kodai Senga, Dylan Cease (July 27)

Updated July 27, 2023 | 10:07 am CDT by Isaiah Sirois
We'll tackle the best MLB player prop and home run picks for today, Saturday, October 5, using our advanced sports betting model...

We’ve got a tiny MLB slate on tap tonight. Two of those games will appear on national streaming services, Mets-Nationals and White Sox-Guardians. I have one MLB player prop pick to watch today, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well, including one featured below. You can also find today’s MLB home run picks here. Without further ado, here are the players to watch and picks to make on the MLB player prop markets today, including Kodai Senga.

Looking for winning MLB bets posted daily? OddsShopper has you covered! Check out our MLB articles and our MLB bet shopping pages that use our industry-leading betting model to find plays with positive expected value (+EV) each day. We even have a Parlay Builder! If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper Premium today — new users can get their first month for 70% off.

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Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Kodai Senga, Dylan Cease 

New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals | 7:10 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Isaiah’s Target: Kodai Senga at BetMGM

The New York Mets will host the Washington Nationals tonight at Citi Field. RHP Kodai Senga will take the mound for New York. He had a tough outing against the Boston Red Sox last time, lasting only 3.1 innings and striking out three batters, but he had come into that game with six-straight games with six-plus strikeouts. He struck out seven batters in his previous start against Washington.

The books have set the line for Senga’s strikeouts at 5.5, which is fair, but you’ll find the over priced differently across the books. Pinnacle has the over set to -156 (60.9%), a much steeper price than the -175 (63.6%) at DraftKings, but still a worse deal than the -145 (59.2%) at BetMGM. The Nationals have been a tough team to strike out this year, taking only 7.02 strikeouts per game, but Senga is a good value at the current market price.

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Best MLB Player Prop: Kodai Senga Over 5.5 Strikeouts -145 at BetMGM

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Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians | 8:10 p.m. ET on ESPN+
OddsShopper’s Target: Dylan Cease at FanDuel

The Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians will do battle late this evening, and OddsShopper recommends fading Chicago’s starter, RHP Dylan Cease, in this spot — at least in the strikeout column. Cease has gone for six-plus strikeouts in his last three starts but may struggle to do so tonight. He racked up only three strikeouts in two separate starts against the Guardians earlier in the year.

This is primarily a market-based edge: Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under priced at -115 (53.5%), but we’ll find it at only -102 (50.5%) via FanDuel. Other books like DraftKings have the same price as Pinnacle, with BetMGM listing it at a still-worse -105 (51.2%). There isn’t a ton of edge here, so don’t over-commit your bankroll on today’s small slate, but there is enough to warrant a wager.

Best MLB Player Prop: Dylan Cease Under 5.5 Strikeouts -102 at FanDuel

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Isaiah Sirois

Author

Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a sports betting analyst at OddsShopper specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar on Sundays. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University and briefly attended Vanderbilt Law School before dropping out to work at OddsShopper.

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