Right-handed pitcher Carlos Carrasco is walking left-handed batters at an incredibly high rate to start the year, and we’ll look to capitalize on that by targeting a couple of Boston hitters, namely Rafael Devers and Wilyer Abreu. Let’s get to our best MLB prop bets today.
Best MLB Prop Bets
Carrasco’s issues with walking left-handed batters date back to last year, as he had a high 13.9% walk rate against them across 20 starts last season. He faced 46 left-handed batters across four starts so far this season and walked no less than 10 of them, “good” for 21.7% walk rate.
While we shouldn’t expect Carlos Carrasco to walk lefties at such a high rate moving forward, his tendency to walk them isn’t a fluke. Carrasco walked three or more batters in three out of his four starts this year and given that the over on his walks line (1.5) is juiced to -145, Vegas believes that it’s more likely than not for him to have another multiple walks outing tonight against the visiting Red Sox.
Lefties Rafael Devers and Wilyer Abreu are the two most likely Boston Red Sox hitters to walk against Carrasco. After missing a week of baseball, Devers is projected to return to Boston’s lineup tonight. Devers’ high 17.1% walk rate against RHPs so far this year (13 games, 41 PA, seven walks) is out to regress as the season progresses, but he walked at a respectable 10.9% rate against them last year so it’s not accidental either.
Devers went over today’s walk line (0.5) in five games this year, so while odds of +105 don’t favorably correspond to his hit rate of today’s line, these are still appealing odds given the matchup.
Abreu walked at an impressive 12% clip against RHPs last year in his rookie season, though in a rather limited sample size (75 PA). He has a healthy 15.1% walk rate against righties so far this season (53 PA, eight walks), and his overall 16.3% walk rate across 363 PA at Triple-A last year further suggests that his patience at the plate at the majors isn’t a coincidence.
Abreu had one or more walks in seven out of 19 games this season, and the odds for him to walk in today’s game are +125. While these odds also don’t favorably correspond to his hit rate, it’s the matchup we’re banking on here.
Projected to bat at the order’s top half, Devers and Abreu should each have several opportunities to exploit Carrasco’s high walk rate against lefties and go over their walks prop.
Best MLB First Prop Bet: Rafael Devers over 0.5 walks (+105 at DraftKings), Wilyer Abreu over 0.5 walks (+125 at DraftKings)
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