It’s Independence Day — and that means fireworks on and off the field. With sportsbooks unleashing promo boosts and baseball offering a jam-packed slate, today’s a prime opportunity to lock in some of the best MLB prop bets today, especially in the volatile (but juicy) MLB home run prop bets market. In this video, we walk through how to smartly bet these high-upside markets using tools from Portfolio EV.
Watch the full video below to see which MLB prop bets today are actually worth sweating — and how to find the best MLB home run prop bets before they disappear. Also, get 75% OFF YOUR FIRST WEEK OR MONTH of Portfolio EV with promo code USA!
Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Home Run Props & More
Take this morning’s bet on Ronald Acuna Jr. — +450 to homer on DraftKings. That number was +475 but disappeared in seconds, dropping to +450 as we clicked it. But that’s exactly the kind of edge that’s possible when you use sharp tools to beat slow-moving books.
If you’re searching for the best MLB prop bets today, especially MLB home run prop bets today, this July 4 slate offers plenty of sharp opportunities. Don’t chase steam. Find value. Bet smart. Celebrate wins.
What Is +EV? Understanding Positive Expected Value in Sports Betting
A +EV (positive expected value) bet means you’re betting with an edge — the true probability of your bet hitting is greater than what the odds imply. When your bets win more often than the breakeven percentage, you’re making profitable decisions over time. But if they hit less often than the odds suggest, you’re placing –EV bets — and slowly leaking money in the long run.
Example: The Bears are +3.5 home underdogs against the Packers at –110 odds. That price means the breakeven point is roughly 52.4%. If you think the Bears cover more than that, you’ve uncovered a +EV opportunity — a sharp, mathematically sound wager.
