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Best YRFI & NRFI Picks Today: How to Bet Phillies-Braves & Orioles-Astros (September 18)

We’re just about two weeks away from the end of MLB regular season, which could be a blessing for us. These YRFI/NRFI bets have been getting a tad wacky lately, but our process has been profitable throughout the season (+30u). So let’s look to book some more wins and finish these last 14 days strong.

Before you ask, of course I have a Guardians-Royals yes/no run first inning bet for you. I always drop those early game picks for my followers, so follow me on Twitter to get that bet.

Best YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Yes & No Run First Inning Bets

First-inning bets are some of the most enjoyable sweats in the MLB betting business. If you want to start making money on your NRFI and YRFI picks, OddsShopper has you covered. Check out our guide to NRFI and YRFI betting and come back each day for the best NRFI and YRFI bets — we post daily NRFI and YRFI articles, and our MLB bet shopping pages integrate data from industry-leading betting model to find NRFI and YRFI picks with positive expected value (+EV) each day. If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper Premium today — new users can get their first month for 70% off.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves First Inning Bet

Monday gives us a matchup with the No. 1 first-inning offense against the No. 7 first-inning offense, with a pitching battle featuring Zack Wheeler vs. Kyle Wright.

Wheeler has been solid for the most part in 2023, but the best offense in baseball in its home ballpark is enticing to me. Not to mention, it’s the place where they score 1.24 runs per first inning (most in the majors by almost half a run). Yes, I’m aware that Ronald Acuna Jr. might be sitting for the third straight game, but that offense has plenty of firepower without him. Lefties have given Wheeler much more trouble than righties this season, so look for Atlanta to stack up the left bats at the top with Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson and maybe even Michael Harris.

The Phillies and Braves just played a four-game where three of the four games topped the 12-run mark (18 in Game 1 of that series). Wright faced the Phils in his last outing, and it wasn’t particularly pretty for him. He gave up four first-inning runs and lasted only three innings. I’m not expecting another complete implosion, but I do expect Trea Turner & Co. to give him some trouble. Turner has been smoking hot lately, having a hit in 23 of his last 25 games, and he’s hitting .315 in Truist Park. Wright has allowed a staggering 12 hits per nine innings this season, so we could see action immediately.

Best YRFI Bet Today: Phillies-Braves for -125 at Caesars Sportsbook

Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros First Inning Bet

Caesars has given us a valuable line to target for a yes run first inning bet in Houston today.

They seem to think Justin Verlander, at age 40, is still peak Verlander. Newsflash, he’s not. Verlander has cashed YRFIs 10 times this season, and Baltimore comes to town looking to make it 11. Verlander has cashed the YRFI in three straight games, which could be a sign that the long season is wearing on his 40-year-old arm. The Orioles have plenty of left-handed bats to deploy at the top of their order, and they all have plenty of pop. Let’s hope they jump on the old guy early.

On the other side, we get another chance to target John Means. Last time we bet on Means, he gave us a sweat-free YRFI against the Cardinals. Now we get to target him with an offense that MERKS left-handed pitching in its home park. Does it get much better than this?

In short, the answer is no. But I’m required to give some analysis. Means had trouble missing bats in his first start since having Tommy John surgery, and Houston is going to put him to the test again tonight. The Astros have the third-fewest strikeouts in baseball this season, and guys like Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve will be greeting him in the bottom half of the first. Let’s hope it doesn’t even come to needing the Astros to plate one in the bottom half, but if it does, I won’t be worried.

Best YRFI Bet Today: Orioles-Astros for -110 at Caesars Sportsbook

Monday’s YRFI/NRFI Parlay

Shoutout Caesars Sportsbook for giving us some tasty lines on both of these games on a day DraftKings wasn’t offering any profit boosts on MLB bets. Pairing the Phillies-Braves YRFI and Orioles-Astros together gives us +244 odds for our parlay today. Let’s take advantage of it, and cash in.

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Nathan Joyce


Nathan Joyce

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