It’s time to continue our Lindy’s Best NFL Locks Today series. For Monday’s expert NFL picks, we are looking at the first of the two-game slate, specifically targeting some running back props from Saints-Panthers. Let’s get into some Monday Night Football bets.
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Expert NFL Picks Today: Saints-Panthers | September 18
New Orleans Saints–Carolina Panthers (39.5 Game Total)
It’s a 2-for-1 special in the Monday Night Football streets as the Panthers host the Saints an hour before the Browns visit the Steelers. And good things seem to come in twos, as Sunday’s betting highlight was locking — and converting — a pair of anytime touchdown plays in Travis Kelce (-140) and Saquon Barkley (+100). However, my favorite touchdown play of Week 2 has still yet to take the field, and it comes in the first game of the night with new Panthers running back Miles Sanders. Plus, there’s another one of his rushing props I’m adding to the ticket to sweeten the pot and keep this theme of “things in twos” going.
Sanders left the Eagles for not-so-greener pastures but a much greener bank account in the offseason, signing a four-year, $25.4 million contract with the Panthers. That type of investment comes with it guaranteed touches, and that was on full display in Week 1 despite just 57% of offensive snaps in the game: 18 carries for 72 yards, plus four receptions in the passing game for 26 yards. Backup Chuba Hubbard still got involved with nine carries and two catches of his own, but after inconsistent snaps during Sanders’ Philadelphia tenure, it seems as though Carolina will make assessing his workload going forward far less of a headache.
With that in mind, Week 2’s matchup against a stout Saints defense proves slightly more difficult than Week 1’s versus the Falcons. New Orleans rendered star Titans running back Derrick Henry borderline irrelevant in their first game of the season, holding him to just 63 yards on 15 carries in the narrow 16-15 win. But outside of edge rusher Cam Jordan and star linebacker Demario Davis, every other player in their front seven received a below-average run defense grade from PFF for the performance. And going back to last season with mostly the same defensive pieces, New Orleans surrendered the ninth-most rushing yards per game at 130.5, opting to eradicate opposing aerial attacks instead.
Enter Sanders on Monday: FanDuel Sportsbook set his rushing prop at 62.5 plus his anytime touchdown at +175, and I’m in love with both. Based on his volume alone in Week 1, plus the Saints’ proclivity in 2022 to sell out to stop the pass, I’m projecting Sanders for 77.4 rushing yards in this spot, a far cry from this line at a standard -110 number. And seeing as he’s being incorporated in the passing game by Carolina — something that was never a part of his game in Philadelphia aside from his 2019 rookie season — there’s more ways than just goal line carries for him to get in the box. So get a little aggressive with me on this single-game parlay that pays out better than 2.5-to-1 as I lock in Sanders to score plus more than 62.5 rushing yards.
Expert NFL Picks Today: Miles Sanders Over 62.5 Rushing Yards + Anytime Touchdown (LOCK) at FanDuel
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