FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday: Home Run Picks & Strategy for June 25 (2024)

Starting Pitchers to Fade

by xHR/9 allowed (source):

Kyle Hendricks (CHC): 1.71 xHR/9
9.6 xHR in 50.2 IP

Logan Allen (CLE): 1.68 xHR/9
14.1 xHR in 75.2 IP

Luis Castillo (SEA): 1.38 xHR/9
14.5 xHR in 94.1 IP

Stadiums to Target

by wind speed out (source):

Minute Maid Park (HOU vs. COL)
10 mph to CF, 90° F, 68% humidity

Kauffman Stadium (KC vs. MIA)
10 mph to LCF, 95° F, 45% humidity

Camden Yards (BAL vs. CLE)
9 mph to LCF, 91° F, 30% humidity

High-Scoring Games

by game total (source):

MIA @ KC
o9.5-122

TOR @ BOS
o9.5-105

LAD @ CWS
o9.5-102

@EricLindquist Ryan Mountcastle – BAL: +470

@JazzrazDFS Marcell Ozuna – ATL: +265

@nd_joyce Matt Olson – ATL: +360
Full analysis below!

@shanderbets Trea Turner – PHI: +600

@is_sirois Adley Rutschman – BAL: +560
Full analysis below!

@JoshEngleman Brent Rooker – OAK: +350

@Loughy_D Anthony Santander – BAL: +370

@gehrenbergdfs Yordan Alvarez – HOU: +350

@nd_joyce Matt Olson – ATL: +360

You don’t really need anyone to tell you to bet the guy who hit 54 homers a year ago for any Dinger Tuesday — but I’m going to tell you to bet Matt Olson to homer tonight at +360 anyway.

The house of cards that Kyle Gibson has built his 3.44 ERA and 1.20 WHIP on this season is about to come crumbling down at the hands of Olson and the Atlanta offense. Gibson has been playing with fire all season, pitching to an expected ERA of 4.82 — almost a full 1.5 runs worse than his actual ERA — and a .441 expected slugging percentage (.380 actual SLG%).

In other words, Gibson is getting by on luck … and maybe some type of weird voodoo magic or something.

Olson absolutely crushes right-handed pitching in his career, with a .274 ISO, which basically breaks the Fangraphs ISO rating chart — where anything nearing .250 is deemed “excellent.”

And, if you’re into small batter-pitcher samples, Olson has owned Gibson in his career to the tune of a .417 average (10-for-24) with 4 home runs and a 1.000 SLG.

It’s going to be SCORCHING HOT in St. Louis tonight, with temperatures over 95 degrees, and humidity nearing 45-50%, so the ball could be JUMPING at Busch Stadium tonight.

With regression looming, Olson’s home run odds should probably be closer to +300. Let’s rock.

@is_sirois Adley Rutschman – BAL: +560

There are two batters I love on the home run markets today at their current price, and Adley Rutschman is one of them. The Baltimore Orioles are at home against the Cleveland Guardians tonight, and it’s LHP Logan Allen on the bump for the visitors. Allen has allowed 1.7 xHR/9 and sports a brutal 5.50 xERA (7th percentile) through 75.2 IP.

Rutschman has been lighting up LHPs all season. He sports an incredible .418/.452/.663 slash line against them with 12 extra-base hits and six home runs in 98 at-bats. Meanwhile, Allen is allowing RHBs to slash .292/.365/.546. Rutschman is a switch hitter but will be batting righty here.

Although Rutschman is third on the Orioles in xHRs with just 13.5, I have faith in his ability to put another one over the fence, especially against a pitcher like Allen, and especially with the MLB weather report calling for 9.2 mph winds blowing out, 91-degree temperatures and 30% humidity.

I bought Rutschman to get multiple bases (-105 at DraftKings) and to go yard (+560 at FanDuel). You can probably find a better price for the home run prop elsewhere, but I’m committing to FanDuel for the Dinger Tuesday perks. Allen (1.7 xHR/9) and Baltimore’s LHP Cole Irvin (1.2 xHR/9) are two beatable pitchers for power bats.