Skip to content
logo
Search Icon
​
Top Bets
Top Bets
My Bets
My Bets
Portfolio Lab
Portfolio Lab
Help
Help
Categories MLB

MLB Home Run Pick Today for April 14: Is This Too Obvious?

Updated April 15, 2025 | 7:58 am CDT by Sam Smith
Home Run Pick Today for April 14: Is This Too Obvious?

If you’re searching for the best home run bets today, look no further than Kyle Schwarber‘s elite power. He has the right matchup and good ballpark conditions to be the top HR pick today. Let’s get into it.

Boost your bankroll long-term with Portfolio EV. Discover more +EV bets with a FREE TRIAL — visit our Portfolio Betting page today!

Best MLB Home Run Bet Today: Kyle Schwarber

Schwarber was around the 40-homer mark the last three years and already has six home runs in 15 games to start the 2025 season. With his elite barrel rate and pull-side power, Schwarber is always a threat to leave the yard — especially against right-handed pitching.

Schwarber faces Landen Roupp, a righty in just his second MLB season. Roupp lacks overpowering stuff and will likely need to throw strikes to compete — a dangerous game against Schwarber, who feasts on righties and punishes mistakes. This is a platoon advantage Schwarber has historically capitalized on.

Today’s game is at Citizens Bank Park, one of the most home-run-friendly stadiums in the league — especially for left-handed hitters. The park’s HR factor for lefties is second highest in MLB, with a short porch in right field tailor-made for Schwarber’s power stroke. Add mild spring weather with no wind concerns, and it’s a great environment for long balls.

You can get Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run at +350 on BetMGM, which implies about a 22% chance. But based on his matchup and power metrics, his true HR probability is closer to 27% to 30%. That makes this a strong +EV (positive expected value) wager — the type of bet where the payout outweighs the risk.

Best Home Run Pick Today: Kyle Schwarber (+350, BetMGM)

Categories MLB
Best Caesars Sportsbook Promo Code Today
How to Build Your First Social Sportsbook Portfolio on Portfolio EV
Sam Smith

Author

Sam Smith

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015 while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With OddsShopper, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with OddsShopper's data to bring you the best betting information possible.

Next Story

EVEN MORE Stories of Bankroll Building with Portfolio EV — Plus 50% Off Your Next Month!

Trending & Related

Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Predictions Today: Pablo Lopez (June 3)

MLB Home Run Pick Today for April 22: Let’s Go Off the Beaten Bath for a Bomb…

NRFI Bets Today: Best No Run First Inning Picks for Tuesday, April 22

Betting 101

Why the Sportsbooks Hate You When You Actually Start Winning

What is Portfolio EV? Guide to +EV Sports Betting

Sports Betting Software Showdown: Which Tool Is Right for You?

3 Betting Mistakes That Portfolio EV Catches Instantly (And How It Fixes Them)

Sports Betting Resources

  • Positive EV NFL Bets
  • Expert NFL Picks
  • Live NBA Odds
  • Positive EV NBA Bets
  • Expert NBA Picks
  • Live NFL Odds
  • NFL Parlay Calculator
  • Positive EV MLB Bets
  • Expert MLB Picks
  • Positive EV College Football Bets
  • Expert College Football Picks

Featured Articles

EVEN MORE Stories of Bankroll Building with Portfolio EV — Plus 50% Off Your Next Month!
June 2, 2025 3:10 pm | Sam Smith
How Bettors Used Portfolio EV to Beat the Books in May
June 1, 2025 12:56 pm | Sam Smith
Why the Sportsbooks Hate You When You Actually Start Winning
May 20, 2025 2:17 pm | Dave Loughran
What is Dinger Tuesday? How to Beat FanDuel’s Promotion
May 20, 2025 2:10 pm | Isaiah Sirois
How Portfolio EV Built My NBA Bankroll from $100 to $1,200
May 16, 2025 7:11 am | Greg Ehrenberg
You Don’t Need to Be a Genius to Beat the Books — Just the Right Tools
April 26, 2025 8:15 am | Dave Loughran

Related Articles

Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Predictions Today: Pablo Lopez (June 3)
June 3, 2025 12:25 pm | Danny Burke
FREE First MLB Portfolio on Portfolio EV: A Step-by-Step Guide
May 29, 2025 11:56 am | Sam Smith
MLB Betting: What are NRFI & YRFI Bets? First Inning Bets Explained
April 23, 2025 7:25 am | Justin Martin
How to Bet on MLB Strikeout Props: Strategy & Expert Advice
April 23, 2025 7:25 am | Isaiah Sirois
How to Be a Profitable MLB Bettor: Finding Positive EV
April 23, 2025 7:25 am | Isaiah Sirois
Ultimate MLB +EV Betting Guide: Build Your Bankroll from Day 1
April 22, 2025 3:02 pm | Sam Smith

Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Predictions Today: Pablo Lopez (June 3)
June 3, 2025 12:25 pm
EVEN MORE Stories of Bankroll Building with Portfolio EV — Plus 50% Off Your Next Month!
June 2, 2025 3:10 pm
How to Sweat Bets the Fun Way and Make Money the +EV Way
June 2, 2025 12:38 pm
How Bettors Used Portfolio EV to Beat the Books in May
June 1, 2025 12:56 pm
Where Is Novig Legal? A 2025 Guide to Novig Legal States
June 1, 2025 11:35 am
Sportsbooks Are a Carnival Game — Here’s How to Beat Them at Their Own Rigged System
June 1, 2025 8:44 am
Best DraftKings Pick6 Promo Code Today
May 31, 2025 11:01 am
Best FanDuel Promo Code Today
May 31, 2025 11:01 am
Best Fanatics Promo Code Today
May 31, 2025 11:01 am
Flat Betting Strategy: What It Is and Why It Works
May 30, 2025 10:53 am

How Can I Find the Best Sports Betting and DFS App Bonuses?

If you're a new sports bettor, it's hard to know where to start. In fact, it's simpler than it seems, because there are incredible sportsbook bonus codes and DFS app promo codes that are expressly designed to help new players get started building a bankroll. As a new player, it's often correct to focus on taking advantage of as many of these offers as you can. Even better, having access to more books lets you take advantage of line shopping so that you can always get the best payout for your winning bets. Books like BetMGM and bet365 have great first-bet offers for new players. On the DFS App side, operators like Underdog and Sleeper offer matches on your first deposit up to a certain amount. Use the links below to explore the best sportsbook promo codes. Once you get signed up with a bonus, make sure to use OddsShopper's Free Bet Converter to maximize your beginning bankroll

Best BetMGM Bonus Code

Get a bonus code for BetMGM

Best Caesars Sportsbook Promo Code

Get a promo code Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Promo Code

Best DraftKings Promo Code

Get a promo code for DraftKings

Best FanDuel Promo Code

Use a promo code for FanDuel

Best PrizePicks Promo Code

Claim a promo code for PrizePicks

Best UnderDog Fantasy Promo Code

Get a promo code for UnderDog

Join the ranks of the OddsShopper Hall of Fame

  • Free Expert Picks

    • Free NBA Picks
    • Free MLB Picks
    • Free NFL Picks
    • Free NHL Picks
    • Free NCAAB Picks
    • Free NCAAF Picks
    • Free Golf Picks
    • Free UFC Picks
    • Free EPL Picks
    • Free Tennis Picks
    • Free WNBA Picks
  • Positive EV Bets

    • Positive EV NBA Bets
    • Positive EV MLB Bets
    • Positive EV NFL Bets
    • Positive EV NHL Bets
    • Positive EV NCAAB Bets
    • Positive EV NCAAF Bets
    • Positive EV Golf Bets
    • Positive EV UFC Bets
    • Positive EV EPL Bets
    • Positive EV Tennis Bets
    • Positive EV WNBA Bets
  • Betting Tools

    • Arbitrage Opportunities
    • Parlay Builder
    • PrizePicks Entry Builder
    • Underdog Entry Builder
    • Sleeper Entry Builder
    • Free Bet Converter
  • Articles

    • All Articles
    • NBA Articles
    • NFL Articles
    • NCAAF Articles
    • MLB Articles
    • PGA Articles
    • NHL Articles
    • NASCAR Articles
    • MMA Articles
  • Betting Calculators

    • Expected Value Calculator
    • Hold Calculator
    • Parlay Calculator
    • Odds Converter
  • Live Odds

    • Live NBA Odds
    • Live MLB Odds
    • Live NFL Odds
    • Live NHL Odds
    • Live NCAAB Odds
    • Live NCAAF Odds
    • Live Golf Odds
    • Live UFC Odds
    • Live EPL Odds
    • Live Tennis Odds
  • Sportsbook Promo Codes

    • BetMGM Bonus Codes
    • Bet365 Bonus Codes
    • FanDuel Promo Codes
    • DraftKings Promo Codes
    • Caesars Promo Codes
    • BetRivers Promo Codes
    • Sleeper Fantasy Promo Codes
    • Underdog Fantasy Promo Codes
    • Betr Picks Promo Codes
  • About Us

    • Contact Us
    • Terms of Use
    • Privacy Policy
    • Stokastic
OddsShopper Logo
© 2024 Stokastic.All Rights reserved.
This site contains commercial content, We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. OddsShopper makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.Please play responsibly. Only customers 21 and over are permitted to play. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.