For bettors who go big or go home, the 10x parlay features the top ROI bets in the market based on simulations from Stokastic’s team of data scientists. These parlays are built to exceed at least 10 times the initial bet. Welcome home, degenerates. This piece will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.
MLB Picks and Parlays Today 8/18
Jacob deGrom O/U 9.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Jacob deGrom is a stud pitcher who is still on a very low pitch count. This will be deGrom’s fourth start this season; he has thrown 76 pitches in each of his last two starts. He is still racking up strikeouts in a hurry, but with such a limited pitch count, it is very difficult to see deGrom reaching double-digit strikeouts again in this matchup against the Braves. This heavy-hitting lineup is tied for the league lead in ISO and ranks second in home runs and third in runs scored.
DeGrom pitched well recently against the Braves, but this will be the second time this offense has seen him in the last 11 days. This under strikeout prop is the biggest favorite in this parlay at -160. Stokastic projects deGrom for only 7.4 strikeouts and an xWin rate of 76%. There is too much risk to take the over with such a limited pitch count.
Best MLB Pick Today: Jacob deGrom UNDER 9.5 Strikeouts (-160)
Andrew Heaney O/U 6.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Tonight will be Andrew Heaney’s fifth straight start and just his eighth start this season. His pitch count is still extremely low, and he has only topped 75 pitches once in his last four starts. Heaney has a career-high 32.3% strikeout rate this season, but he has only struck out at least seven once in his last four starts. Not being able to pitch deep into games severely limits the upside for Heaney in this matchup against the Brewers, and that is the main reason to feel comfortable with this under. Only 60 pitches in his last start will simply not be enough to reach many over strikeout props. Stokastic projects Heaney for only five strikeouts in this spot and an xWin rate of 74% on his under.
Best MLB Pick Today: Andrew Heaney UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-155)
Lucas Giolito O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
White Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito has been extremely hot recently. He has won three straight starts and has cruised over this strikeout prop in each start, averaging 6.3 strikeouts per game during that time. Overall this season, Giolito has a respectable 25.8% strikeout rate. The Astros are a tough matchup when it comes to strikeouts, as they rank as the second lowest in the league. However, going back further, Giolito has gone over this 4.5 strikeout prop line in seven of his last nine starts. This line is simply way too low, regardless of the matchup. Stokastic projects Giolito for 5.7 strikeouts, which is well over this prop line. It is hard to imagine Giolito failing in this spot with such a low line.
Best MLB Pick Today: Lucas Giolito OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)
Josh Winckowski O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Red Sox rookie Josh Winckowski has really struggled accumulating strikeouts this season. His 13.9% strikeout rate is extremely low, and he has only reached four strikeouts in one of his last four starts. Winckowski will get a matchup against the Pirates, who have the second-highest strikeout rate in MLB. In his most recent start, Winckowski allowed three earned runs and only recorded two strikeouts through 5.2 innings. Despite the high-strikeout Pirates lineup, Winckowski’s lack of getting swings and misses puts himself in a tough spot in this matchup. Stokastic projects Winckowski for three strikeouts tonight, which is one more than he achieved in this last start but still under where this line is set, paired with an xWin rate of 65% for the under.
Best MLB Pick Today: Josh Winckowski UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Adrian Sampson O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
The last strikeout prop in this 10x parlay is the only prop that is coming in at plus money. Adrian Sampson has struck out four or more in three straight starts, averaging 5.3 strikeouts per game during that time. Even though Sampson has averaged 81 pitches per game in his last three and has lost two of those three starts, he is still registering plenty of strikeouts, lending credence to the over. The Orioles rank just outside the top 10 in strikeout rate this season, and Stokastic projects four strikeouts for Sampson in this spot. Even though this prop is coming in at even money, the xWin rate on this over is still at 57%, which is quite high for the odds. Sampson rounds out this 10x parlay, which has an xWin rate of 14%.
Best MLB Pick Today: Adrian Sampson OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (+100)
