After falling a little short in the four-player parlay last night, we up the ante to five props tonight for this 11-game MLB slate. Don’t feel obligated to pick all five, but these bets will provide the best chance to win based on Stokastic’s simulations. The prop party parlay is the most popular betting combo within the Stokastic community, and Alex “Awesemo” Baker — the world’s No. 1 daily fantasy player — uses these almost exclusively when he’s looking for an edge. This piece will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.
MLB Picks and Parlays Today 9/20
Braves vs. Nationals | RISK FREE BET
The race to be the NL East division champion continues to be very close. The Atlanta Braves are still just one game back despite winning five straight games. They will host the Washington Nationals tonight as they look to keep the winning streak rolling. Their Magic Number currently sits at 2, so they can clinch a playoff berth any day now.
Veteran Charlie Morton and his 28.3% strikeout rate will take the mound for the Braves. He hasn’t had a losing season since 2014, and the Nationals are only implied for 3.1 runs.
It is Patrick Corbin day for the Braves. In his 10th season in the major leagues, Corbin leads the league in losses with 18, and he has posted a career-worst 6.11 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 11.1% barrel percentage and a 45.3% hard-hit rate. Corbin has faced the Braves three times this season. During those starts, he has allowed 15 earned runs through only 13.2 innings, and he is 0-3 with a 9.88 ERA.
The Braves are implied for 5.7 runs in this cupcake matchup, and they have an xWin rate of 74% to win tonight. The odds aren’t great, but this is a layup to get the Prop Party parlay started.
Best MLB Pick Today: Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-300)
Kyle Gibson O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | RISK FREE BET
The first of two player props this evening will feature Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Kyle Gibson in a home matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays. Despite losing four straight games and being behind the Mets and Braves in the NL East, the Phillies have a great chance to make the playoffs as a Wild Card team. They’ll have to get back on track with their last home stand of the season after a brutal 2-4 road trip.
In his first full season with the Phillies, Gibson has a 10-6 record and a respectable 1.27 WHIP. Even though the Blue Jays are a below-average strikeout team, this prop simply feels too low. Gibson is averaging 4.5 strikeouts per game this season and 4.65 per game dating back to a season and a half with the Phillies. Over the last nine games, Gibson is averaging five strikeouts per game, so this is a prop he can easily reach.
Stokastic projects Gibson for 4.6 strikeouts, which is well above this 3.5 strikeout prop line. Having a 62% xWin rate provides a lot of value in this parlay. Gibson also has a 3.90 ERA while pitching at home, compared to a 5.31 ERA on the road. It is a sneaky good spot for Gibson tonight.
Best MLB Pick Today: Kyle Gibson OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-155)
Pablo Lopez O/U 6.5 Strikeouts | RISK FREE BET
The Miami Marlins and Chicago Cubs are both 20-plus games under .500. Pablo Lopez will start for the Marlin, and he has had a pretty strong fifth year with the Marlins. Lopez has a 23.5% strikeout rate, a 1.22 WHIP and a 9-10 record, despite the terrible Marlins record. In his lost matchup against the Cubs on the road this season, Lopez reached six strikeouts but allowed nine hits and four earned runs while only getting through five innings. Expect a much different outing tonight, especially in terms of runs scored.
The Cubs are only implied for 3.2 runs, as they continue to call up minor league players to get through the end of the season. Lopez and the Marlins are a -150 favorite, and he should be able to breeze through this Cubs depleted lineup. The Cubs rank just outside the top 10 in strikeout rate this year, but that number has climbed later in the season as their roster gets worse and worse. The prop line may seem high, but this is an elite matchup for Lopez.
Best MLB Pick Today: Pablo Lopez OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Orioles vs. Tigers | RISK FREE BET
The Baltimore Orioles made a strong run at a playoff berth, but they have a 0.4% chance to make it now with only a few weeks left in the regular season. Meanwhile, the Detroit Tigers just spanked the Orioles 11-0 last night, so the Tigers at +1.5 is the bet for this matchup. They will take on Orioles right-hander Austin Voth, who was acquired in early June.
This will be Voth’s 15th start of the season, but he has appeared in 38 total games between the Orioles and Nationals. During those appearances, Voth has a 4.36 ERA and a pretty high 1.42 WHIP. The Tigers will counter with southpaw rookie Joey Wentz, who will draw his fifth start tonight. Wentz has a 4.15 ERA but a very impressive 1.04 WHIP, and opponents have an average of just .215 against him. The Orioles are -198 favorites, but taking the Tigers and plus one run has some appeal. It is likely not the best game on the slate, but let’s hope the Tigers can carry their momentum from their blowout win yesterday into tonight.
Best MLB Pick Today: Detroit Tigers +1.5 (-120)
White Sox vs. Guardians O/U 7 Runs | RISK FREE BET
The last prop in this party prop parlay is a battle in the AL Central division race. The Chicago White Sox and the Cleveland Guardians are both playing extremely well recently, but the White Sox still trail the Guardians by four games in the division. The White Sox have won 13 of their last 18 games, while the Guardians have won 12 of their last 15 games. They played one makeup game last Thursday, scoring 10 total runs as the White Sox won 8-2.
Even though the White Sox have their ace Dylan Cease pitching, this line feels very soft at seven total runs. Where Cease thrives is generating strikeouts, but that is tough to do against a Guardians team that ranks last in strikeout rate. The Guardians will send Aaron Civale to the mound, and he has missed nearly a month due to a forearm injury. This red-hot White Sox team is not one to face when coming off of an injury. Even when Civale was not injured, he had a career-high 5.40 ERA and a 40.1% hard-hit rate through 16 starts. This feels like a matchup where both teams can take advantage, especially the White Sox.
Best MLB Pick Today: Total Runs OVER 7 Runs (-115)
