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Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Predictions Today: Some Phillies Revenge on D-backs (June 21)

We return to the MLB diamond looking to close out the work week with another smash. It is a normal schedule with limited action during the day, which opens some value on the Underdog Fantasy app. As we have in the past, we rely on the Underdog Fantasy optimizer tool to guide us to victory. We will look at what beats the market but also why it makes sense as we hit you with the top MLB Underdog predictions of the night!

It’s a simple question at Underdog Fantasy: Choose if a player will finish higher or lower their current projection. Build anywhere from two to six legs. Here are the top two plays from Underdog — getting 3x back on a winning entry. OddsShopper has an Underdog Fantasy optimizer tool designed to help you build winning entries

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Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick’em Predictions Today

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Keibert Ruiz H/L Than 1.5 Total Bases

Washington saw just one hit — a single — out of Keibert Ruiz throughout its three-game series against Arizona. While this is a new series, specifically at Coors Field, Ruiz isn’t out of the clear quite yet. Let’s get the good out of the way first; Ruiz enters tonight with just a 13.1% strikeout rate — leading the Washington Nationals everyday players. He’s a tough out at the plate only if you’re trying to strike him out, as he’s relatively weak hitting everywhere else.

With just a .280 xwOBA, Ruiz is just struggling to make consistent contact for anything other than outs. They aren’t even that loud either; with a 26.2 hard-hit rate and an 85.5 mph EV, it’s not like he’s connecting for much power. He will face Dakota Hudson, who is not great, nor has it been a particularly easy season for the Rockies. But just changing the venue isn’t going to push Ruiz over the top. We stay lower than 1.5 total bases for Ruiz, who may not see more than three at-bats.

Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Keibert Ruiz Lower Than 1.5 Total Bases

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. H/L Than 1.5 Total Bases

This will not be an easy series for the Diamondbacks if nothing else outside of where they are playing. The Phillies are well aware of how dangerous Arizona can be, as revenge has been discussed at length locally in Philadelphia. The good news for both teams is that neither is starting a dangerous arm, but that isn’t automatic on everyone going higher than their totals.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is the guy we want to target on the Diamondbacks to stay lower than 1.5 total bases. We will explain the slight edge from OddsShopper, but let’s look at why this makes sense. Gurriel is hitting the ball hard — 41.3% hard-hit rate — but it’s not transferring into much. His .294 xwOBA is close to the bottom of the team, and he is playing above his head over the past three games.

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Even against Taijuan Walker, we like Gurriel’s mini three-game hit streak to end and him to stay lower than 1.5 total bases. We gain a slight but profitable 1.7% edge against the market, as our -122 implied odds beat the -127 true odds.

Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Lower Than 1.5 Total Bases

OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips

Looking for more 2023-24 MLB predictions or random data? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this MLB season — make sure to check out the rest of our MLB articles. Our friends over at Stokastic have your MLB DFS picks covered. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets. We recently launched our MLB Weather Report page if you’re starting to itch for the summer months!

Eytan Shander


Eytan Shander

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