After a brutal loss yesterday, we’ll look to get back on track today, focusing on the Portland-Miami matchup. The Trail Blazers are hosting the Heat in one of the slate’s late games, and are currently slight underdogs in the game’s opening quarter (+0.5). Considering Portland’s improved play and Miami’s defensive woes to start the year, there’s an argument to be made that the former should be favored to win the game’s first quarter. Be sure to check our OddsShopper tool for the latest odds.
Best Heat-Trail Blazers Bet: First Quarter Moneyline
Miami was one of the better first-quarter teams in the league last year, particularly defensively. The team ended the regular season with the fifth-best net rating and second-best defensive rating in the opening quarter. However, their first-quarter defense to start the year is a far cry from what it was. While we’re still working with a very limited sample size, Miami has the seventh-worst first-quarter defensive rating and 12th-worst net rating through the season’s first four games. While still playing rather slow (10th slowest), Miami allows opposing teams to shoot well (54.7% effective field goal percentage) and score an average of 29.5 first-quarter points, ninth-most in the league. While they did face decent offenses in Chicago, Boston and Toronto (twice), the drop off in the team’s defensive rates is noticeable.
Miami’s offense has been clicking though, having the 12th-best offensive rating while scoring the 10th most points per opening frame at 29. Notably, the team shoots extremely well from downtown, connecting on 48.5% of their first-quarter 3-point attempts so far. Altogether, the team has a 2-2 record in the opening frame of their games, losing it by an average margin of 0.5 points.
Portland is a different beast than it was last season. Welcoming back Damian Lillard and signing Jerami Grant to the team, the Trail Blazers have won all four of their games this year and are simply a more talented team. Their first-quarter rates aren’t overly impressive but are still better than their opponent’s tonight, especially on defense. The team plays at a slowish pace (11th slowest) and has the 13th-best first-quarter net rating. They have the 11th-best defensive rating, limiting opponents to a 51.7% effective field goal percentage (11th best) and 26.5 first-quarter points, the ninth-fewest in the league. Specifically, the team’s 3-point defense is middle of the road but certainly not a weakness.
Their offense isn’t great though and is actually much better later in games (their 115 offensive rating for the entire game is roughly 7.5 points higher than their first-quarter offensive rating), as the team scores an average of 28 points per opening frame, the 14th fewest in the association. A large portion of their first-quarter points is the result of free throws (26.8% of points, most in the league), so it’s encouraging that Miami sends opposing teams to the line 7.3 times per opening quarter, fourth-most. Like Miami, Portland is 2-2 in the first quarter of their games, losing to Phoenix and Denver and winning against Sacramento and the Lakers, however, they do have a positive (1.5) points differential.
Portland has been the better first-quarter team so far in this young season, and while Miami’s first-quarter rates are out to improve as the season progresses, they’ll also won’t convert on roughly half of their 3-point attempts. The Trail Blazers will need to maintain their defensive play and keep up offensively for them to win the first quarter (they only scored 25 and 23 points in their two first-quarter losses compared to 32 in their wins,) but could do so considering Miami’s lackluster first quarter defense so far. At plus money odds (best odds as of time of writing are +102 on Fanduel), taking Portland’s first quarter moneyline is the preferred play here.
Heat-Trail Blazers Bet: Trail Blazers Moneyline (+102 at FanDuel).
