There are 8 games on today’s NBA slate including several intriguing matchups. Focusing on two of these games, we’ll look for all three of Cameron Payne, Mikal Bridges, and Kristaps Porzingis to go over their respected prop lines. Be sure to check out the OddsShopper tool for more best NBA player props and best bets.
Best NBA Player Props | November 20
Cameron Payne Prop: O/U 2.5 3-Pointers
The Phoenix Suns host the New-York Knicks in today’s early game. Mitchell Robinson might play for the Knicks following two weeks absence while Chris Paul has already been ruled by the Suns.
Cameron Payne has played well since entering the starting lineup in place of Chris Paul (heel) five games ago. Specifically, Payne hasn’t been shy shooting the 3 during this recent stretch, averaging 7.8 3-point attempts and 3.6 made 3’s per game in the last five games. He makes 42.4% of his 3-point attempts so far this season, much better than last year’s 33.6% or his career average of 36.7%. While Payne is shooting unsustainably well, he’ll have every chance to continue doing so today. Today’s matchup is as good as it gets given that the Knicks allow its opponents to take (40.4) and make (14.3) the most 3-pointers per game. Moreover, New-York is particularly vulnerable to the point guard position, allowing 3.65 3’s per game to opposing point guards, also most in the league.
Considering today’s favorable matchup and Payne’s shot volume and recent form since replacing Paul in the lineup, plus money odds (best odds as of time of writing are +105) for him to score 3 or more 3’s against the Knicks are enticing.
Best NBA Player Prop: Cameron Payne OVER 2.5 3-Pointers (+105 at DraftKings)
Mikal Bridges Prop: O/U 1.5 3-Pointers
Given the Knicks’ poor perimeter defense, targeting another Phoenix player to have a successful day from beyond the arc makes a lot of sense. Like Payne, Bridges is also shooting extremely well so far this season, converting 44.7% of his 3-point attempts. While Bridges is likely due for some negative regression to his shooting as well (he is a 37.7% 3-point shooter for his career), his 3-point shot volume and production have also increased since Paul’s injury. After going over 1.5 3’s in four out of the season’s first 10 games and averaging only 2.2 3-point attempts and 1.1 made 3’s per game during that span, Bridges scored two or more 3’s in three of the last five games, averaging 5 3-point attempts and 2 made 3’s per game.
Furthermore, Bridges shoots significantly better when playing at home so far this season. Though based on a small sample size, Bridges converts 56% of his 3-point attempts playing at home (eight games) compared to only 31.8% when playing outside Arizona (seven games). While Bridges shoots above his head, particularly in Phoenix’s home games, his increased production from beyond the arc since Paul’s absence and tonight’s favorable matchup are tough to ignore. At plus money odds (best odds as of time of writing are +125), taking the over on Bridges’ 3-point prop looks like a strong bet.
Best NBA Player Prop: Mikal Bridges OVER 1.5 3-Pointers (+125 at DraftKings)
Kristaps Porzingis Prop: O/U 2.5 Assists
Charlotte is one of the best possible matchups for opposing centers. So far this season, the Hornets allow the most points (25.94), third most rebounds (16.87), and fourth most assists (4.94) per game to opposing centers. Enter Kristaps Porzingis, who averages 20.9 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 2.7 assists per game through the season’s first month (15 games played).
While Porzingis went over today’s rebounds prop (9.5) in six out of 15 games this season and over his points prop (20.5) in a similar number of games, he went over his assists prop (2.5) in eight games, including against this Charlotte team on November 7th (recording five assists). While Beal didn’t play in that game, his presence on the court doesn’t dramatically hurts Porzingis’ assists output – Beal played in six of the eight games in which Porzingis recorded three or more assists at. Porzingis is projected for 2.6 assists in tonight’s game and the odds for him going under (+110) are appealing. Despite this slightly bearish projection, Porzingis is in a very favorable spot to rack up assists in tonight’s affair against Charlotte. With money coming in on the over (the odds for it were plus money last night), make sure to shop around for the best odds if tailing.
Best NBA Player Prop: Kristaps Porzingis OVER 2.5 Assists (-120 at PointsBet)
