After a 10-game slate yesterday, we only have 4 games this Thursday night. Despite the smaller slate, there are still several enticing spots that bettors can tackle on PrizePicks. We’ll focus on De’Aaron Fox, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Keegan Murray and use the site’s projection to identify the best PrizePicks NBA props. Check out the OddsShopper tool for more NBA best bets.
Best PrizePicks NBA Props | October 27
De’Aaron Fox O/U 4 Rebounds
Sacramento is hosting Memphis in what projects to be a fast-paced, high-scoring affair, with the game total currently set at 236-236.5, by far highest on today’s slate. De’Aaron Fox had 7, 5, and 5 rebounds in the 3 games Sacramento played thus far this season (vs Portland, Clippers, and Golden State), averaging 10 rebound chances and 5.7 rebounds per game. He’s rebounding a bit over his head currently considering that he averages 3.6 rebounds per game for his career and that last year’s 3.9 rebounds per game mark was a career high. Still, this is a very favorable individual matchup for Fox.
Memphis is middle of the road in opponents’ rebounds, allowing 46.5 rebounds per game to its opponents. Specifically, the team allows 8.15 rebounds per game to opposing point guards, second-most in the league behind only Detroit. Brunson (6), Porter Jr. (5), Doncic (7), and Irving (8) all found success rebounding the ball against this Memphis team, and Fox averages more rebound opportunities than both Brunson (7.5) and Irving (9.3).
In addition to a favorable matchup, Fox’s rebounds line is softer on PrizePicks (4) than it is on various sportsbooks (4.5). With a projection of 4.3 rebounds for tonight’s game, his PrizePicks rebounds prop seems too low.
Best PrizePicks Prop: De’Aaron Fox OVER 4 Rebounds
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander O/U 13 Rebounds + Assists
In a rematch of Tuesday’s night game, Oklahoma City are hosting the Clippers, this time with Paul George’s defensive presence. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander truly does it all for OKC, playing 35.5 minutes and averaging 31 points, 6.7 assists, and 4.7 rebounds through the season’s first three games. He’s tasked to do more whenever playing without Josh Giddey, who missed the team’s last game and will be out again tonight. While SGA will have opportunities to rack up stats tonight, his combined rebounds and assists prop on PrizePicks is quite high, possibly too high.
As noted above, SGA averages only 11.4 combined rebounds and assists per game so far, averaging 8.7 rebound chances and 14.7 potential assists. He had exactly 13 rebounds plus assists against this Clippers team on Tuesday, playing 37 minutes to achieve that. While Giddey’s absence means more opportunities for SGA, it also increases the chance for a blowout and less playing time, especially with George back in the Clippers lineup and OKC having no incentive to win games.
Our projections have him finishing tonight’s game with roughly 11 combined rebounds and assists, two-points below PrizePicks’s line. It’s also noteworthy that while his combined prop sits at 13, his individual rebounds prop is set at 5.5 and his assists prop is at 6.5. Thus, there’s an extra point gap in our favor. Altogether, fading SGA might be risky but should prove beneficial. Let’s look at one more NBA prop for tonight.
Best PrizePicks Prop: Shai Gilgeous Alexander Under 13 Rebounds + Assists
Keegan Murray O/U 16.5 Points
Murray will start for the Kings and could see heavy minutes after playing 33 and 38 minutes in the 2 games he played this year. While Murray’s play has been impressive, and despite the positive game environment, this might be a good spot to go under his PrizePicks points prop (16.5).
Mainly, Keegan Murray is shooting exceptionally well to start his career, going 13-24 from the field and 7-16 from downtown. These unsustainable rates, alongside Murray’s move into the starting lineup and overall excitement from his play, have driven up his points prop, perhaps too high. We currently project him for 12.6 points, with an expected 74% win percentage for the under to hit.
Best PrizePicks Prop: Keegan Murray UNDER 16.5 Points
