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Betr Picks Pick’em Predictions Today: Welcome Back, Kristaps Porzingis (June 6)

The NBA season begins its final decent as the Finals are set to tip in Boston between the Mavericks and Celtics. The series has everything you could ask for: Multiple superstars on each team with some built-in drama on the side. We know you can’t get enough of the Kyrie Irving vs. Boston drama, but we’re here to make you money on Betr Picks. Here are your Betr Picks NBA predictions today; also don’t forget to take advantage full advantage of a free pick on Betr: Kyrie Irving MORE than 0.5 points throughout the NBA Finals.

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Betr Picks NBA Pick’em Predictions Today

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Kristaps Porzingis M/L Than 15.5 Points

In case you haven’t heard, Kristaps Porzingis is returning for the Boston Celtics — taking on his former team in the process. All that is enough to mask, or maybe make you forget, the fact that he’s coming back from a significant injury that knocked him out most of the playoffs. I don’t expect the gloves to come off and Porzingis to be running free for 42 minutes. Even out on the floor, he’s not the first or second option and is there to lure Dallas big men out of the key to open up space to attack.

Porzingis should see some clean shots from deep, be it 3’s or long 2’s, mainly at the expense of a slower defender. He’s not immediately becoming a primary focus of scoring; he’s another key piece in the starting lineup. The ball will move differently with him on the floor, but that doesn’t mean it stops with him — not in his first game back. The projection is adjusted, probably closer to 18.5 if he’s not missing time, but still not low enough to avoid or buy back.

The Mavericks are going to have to make a decision at some point: Allow Porzingis to burn them from deep or slow down Tatum or Brown. They will elect for the latter, at least at first, which further hurts Porzingis reaching more than the above total.

Betr Picks NBA Pick’em Prediction: Kristaps Porzingis LOWER Than 15.5 Points

Daniel Gafford M/L Than 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists

We turn to the trusty OddsShopper pick’em app to identify a slight but profitable edge against the market. The Mavs are outmatched if comparing talents between Gafford and Porzingis. Even if the latter isn’t cleaning the glass on the regular, he’s backed by a healthy rotation of defensive minded big men.

Granted, Gafford faced a tougher front in the Timberwolves, but he also saw some extended time on the floor with minor injuries in the frontcourt. He’s going to have to score 10-plus points to slam the MORE on 15.5 points + rebounds + assists, especially since he’s more likely to go without an assist than to register one.

While that may be baked into the above total, we are essentially taking less than 15.5 points and rebounds with the expectations of 0.5 assists falling the opposite way.

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We look at the diminished returns of tailing a guy who should see fewer minutes and chances on the free-throw line.

Gafford was able to clear this number against Minnesota by getting to the line. There’s no specific matchup to exploit; if anything, Porzingis might drag Gafford out to clear some space in the middle. We expect a tough night for Gafford and want no part of going above that total.

We find another edge thanks to the NBA pick’em app staying ahead of the market. Our +EV play has -122 implied odds on Betr beating the -127 true odds. The play is lower than 15.5 PRA with a 1.9% edge.

Betr Picks NBA Pick’em Prediction: Daniel Gafford LOWER Than 1.5 Total Bases

Eytan Shander


Eytan Shander

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