The Golden State Warriors have begun their title defense in solid fashion. Although they sit at just 2-2, the Warriors are built for the playoffs and need only qualify to frighten their competition. The Miami Heat sit at a similar 2-3, but, like the Warriors, they should find their way into the playoffs. A quick look at the NBA odds reveals that the Warriors are sizeable home favorites. Bettors should head to DraftKings Sportsbook to tail these Heat-Warriors picks and predictions — or they can check out the OddsShopper tool for other sharp bets.
Best Heat-Warriors Picks & Bam Adebayo Props
Heat Playing Like an Average Team
The Heat have looked unremarkable. They rank 16th in net rating (+0.4) behind the 23rd-ranked offense (109.2) and 11th-ranked defense (108.8). So far, they have taken a step back from last year in both metrics. The Heat needed a dominant fourth quarter to top the Portland Trail Blazers, and they have already lost games to the Chicago Bulls, Boston Celtics and Toronto Raptors. The Heat have played at a relatively slow pace, as they rank 26th in that metric.
Miami's issues have stemmed from turnovers and poor play in the clutch. The Heat rank a lowly 23rd in turnover ratio (15.4) and are 30th in clutch net rating (-87.5). Although it's a small, five-minute sample, the Heat rank last in both clutch offensive (62.5) and defensive (150) rating. While this should regress, as the Heat ranked an average 15th in clutch net rating (+0.3) last year, it's a trend worth noting.
As was expected, the Heat have leaned on Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo this year. The trio have combined for 280 points, or 52.5% of Miami's total scoring. Notably, Kyle Lowry has started the year terribly and is shooting just 34% from the floor. He has shot a decent 34.3% from beyond the arc but has made only 26.7% of his 2-point field goals. Adebayo has also struggled and is averaging 3.8 turnovers per game, a jump from the 2.6 he averaged over the last two seasons.
Warriors Still Getting Warmed Up
These aren't last year's Warriors. Replacing solid defensive veterans like Gary Payton II and Otto Porter Jr. with young players like James Wiseman, Moses Moody and Jonathan Kuminga will work long term. Still, Golden State will have some growing pains to start the year. The Warriors rank just 22nd in net rating (-4.7) behind the 21st-ranked offense (110.1) and 22nd-ranked defense (114.8).
The Warriors are probably a bit overrated at the moment. Although they're still shooting well, they rank only 10th in true shooting percentage. They also aren't rebounding at the elite clip they did in the playoffs, as they rank 27th in team rebound rate (47%). The wins over Los Angeles and Sacramento don't look very impressive, as those teams are a combined 0-7. The Warriors lost in a close game to the Denver Nuggets and in a blowout to the Phoenix Suns, teams that are a combined 6-3.
The fact Golden State has regressed on defense while playing at the NBA's fastest pace makes targeting opposing players to hit the over on their player props quite sharp. For example, the Warriors have surrendered an NBA-high 34.6 points per game to opposing centers. They have also given up the sixth-most rebounds per game (18.2) to the position. The Warriors have allowed the fourth-most points per game to opposing power forwards (24.9) but the fourth fewest to opposing small forwards (17.3). Unsurprisingly, these trends correspond with the Warriors allowing the third-most points in the paint per game (57.5).
Final Heat-Warriors Prediction & Pick
Golden State's struggles against opposing bigs make this a great spot to target Adebayo. Deandre Ayton just racked up 30 points and rebounds in only 25 minutes on Tuesday. His backup, Jock Landale, scored 17 points and added seven boards in only 22 minutes. Domantas Sabonis and Richaun Holmes combined for 34 points and 19 rebounds in Golden State's preceding game as well.
Bettors should back Adebayo to surpass a relatively low point and rebound combo line of 25.5 He has beaten it in only two of his five starts so far, but he has been getting the minutes and shots necessary for a bounce-back performance. Those concerned about Adebayo playing on the wrong end of a back-to-back should note that he saw less than 30 minutes of action last night.
Further, Adebayo went for 25 points and nine rebounds in his lone start against Golden State last season. In addition to playing the combo line, bettors should sprinkle on a same-game parlay of Adebayo to rack up 30-plus points and rebounds and for the Heat to win.
Best Heat-Warriors Pick: Bam Adebayo Over 25.5 Points and Rebounds (-105 for 1.05 Unit) at DraftKings
SGP: Bam Adebayo 30+ Points and Rebounds + Heat Moneyline (+650 for 0.15 Unit) at DraftKings
