The Dallas Mavericks are 1-2 but were just five points away from being 3-0. Narrow road losses to the Suns and Pelicans — both of which required clutch play by the other team — have relegated the Mavs to 11th in the Western Conference. The Nets also find themselves at 11th in the Eastern Conference and are on the wrong end of a back-to-back set. A quick look at the NBA odds reveals that the Mavs are slight road favorites. As always, be sure to check out our OddsShopper tool to find the sharpest plays.
NBA Odds: Mavericks-Nets
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The Mavericks Are Better Than 1-2
The Dallas Mavericks just played the injury-depleted New Orleans Pelicans on national television and lost. The Pelicans couldn't miss in the first quarter but Dallas came back and led both at the half and heading into the fourth quarter -- only to give up a late run to New Orleans' reserves. The Mavericks at least looked good in the pick-and-roll, and Luka Doncic scored 37 despite shooting 2-for-13 from beyond the arc.
Dallas continues to lead the NBA in net rating (+13.6) behind its first-ranked offense (122.6) and its 12th-ranked defense (109). No other team with a net rating above +1 has a losing record. The Mavericks also lead the NBA in true shooting percentage (61.2%) and team rebound rate (78.5%). Win or lose, the Mavericks are Doncic's team. He leads the NBA in time of possession and ranks sixth in touches per game (87.3). He has run a relatively slow offense, as the Mavericks rank 28th in pace this year.
So why are the Mavericks 1-2 and not 3-0? They have two problems. First, the Mavericks have played terribly in the clutch. It's a small sample, but they rank a dismal 26th in clutch net rating (-40). The offense ranks 19th (93.3) but the defense ranks a concerning 26th (133.3). The defense has proven especially vulnerable to the fast break, as it ranks 25th in fastbreak efficiency, and in the paint, as the Mavericks rank 20th in paint points surrendered per game (52) despite their slow pace.
The Nets Aren't Better Than 1-3
Like the Mavericks, the Brooklyn Nets just played on primetime and lost. They fell to the Milwaukee Bucks despite Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant combining for 60 points. The Nets led at halftime but got outscored by 23 in the second half. Ben Simmons scored four points after shooting 2-for-7 from the floor and missing two free throws.
Unlike the Mavericks, the Nets have few stats to feel encouraged about. Brooklyn ranks 29th in net rating (-9.2), despite its 18th-ranked offense (110.6), because of its 29th-ranked defense (119.8). The Nets tried to get better on the defensive end by adding Simmons and Royce O'Neal, but neither of those players has generated a single defensive win share. The Nets rank an unremarkable 20th in true shooting percentage (56.4%) and a concerning last in team rebound rate (44.7%). The Nets rank an average of 18th in pace this year.
The Nets are also unlikely to exploit Dallas' weaknesses. Like Dallas, they have struggled in the clutch. Brooklyn ranks 19th in clutch net rating this year (-12.5), although the Nets did rank a solid eighth last year (+9.1). They rank only 15th in fastbreak points per game (15.5) and 24th in points scored in the paint per game (45).
Final Mavericks-Nets Prediction & Pick
Bettors can attack tonight's Mavericks-Nets matchup in two ways. First, Brooklyn's inability to rebound creates value on Christian Wood's rebounding props. Wood is averaging 24.3 points and 8.7 rebounds per game, yet his points prop sits at 19.5, his rebounding prop at 7.5 and the combo prop at 27.5. With the Nets ranked below average in points and rebounds allowed to both power forwards and centers, Wood should be in for another solid day.
Bettors should also buy low on the Mavericks. Dallas has played so much more efficiently than Brooklyn this year, and the Nets have played terribly at home. Brooklyn is just 10-35-1 against the spread in the Barclays Center since last season. They are also 10-13-1 against the spread with a rest disadvantage through that span.
Final Mavericks-Nets Pick: Mavericks -2.5 (-110 for 1.1 Unit) at Caesars
Christian Wood Over 27.5 Points and Rebounds (-120 for 1.2 Unit) at FanDuel
