OK, calling these Underdog Fantasy pick’em predictions NBA-exclusive is inaccurate — we are throwing in a pick from Friday’s Texas-Ohio State CFB matchup in order to get a strongly +EV entry. Still, we have some solid NBA value from the Underdog Fantasy Optimizer as well, so let’s break down these Underdog NBA expert picks from Portfolio EV for Monday, Jan. 6.
NBA Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Predictions Today
Zach LaVine Lower Than 23.5 Points
Let’s start with the easy analysis: LaVine and the Bulls are facing Victor Wembanyama tonight. Now, the Spurs have not been an elite defensive team on the whole this season, but they were second in defensive rating over the last 10 games, and Wembanyama has lost his goshdarn mind as a rim protector.
LaVine does shoot a lot of jumpers and has been doing so at career-high efficiency, which could mitigate Wembanyama at the rim. That said, he also attacks the basket a lot, which will basically be moot when Wembanyama is in the game. Ultimately, Stokastic’s NBA Advanced Stat Projections have LaVine at 23.2 points tonight, a hair below the 23.5 mark. That gives us a 55% chance of winning if we go lower than 23.5.
Keon Johnson Lower Than 14.5 Points
Last time we faded Johnson, he dropped 25 points. Since then, he has, in fact, become a relatively large part of the Nets offense, averaging 16 points on 14 shots a game over the last five.
Well, we’re fading him again as the Nets take on the Spurs. Stokastic’s NBA Advanced Stat Projections give him 13.5 tonight, primarily because we are treating D’Angelo Russell as active. If Russell sits, throw this pick aside and only go with the other two since Johnson has the second-highest points projection on the Nets. As is, though, this has a 55% expected win rate.
Ryan Wingo Lower Than 26.5 Receiving Yards
And now for the college football pick that we’ll have to sweat nearly a week to cash. Honestly, this pick is going to be evergreen for about five days, so add it to other entries as needed.
Wingo has had zero, one or two catches every game since Nov. 9, and only twice in that stretch (seven games) did he exceed 26.5 yards. Quinn Ewers has not exactly been slinging it either despite the Longhorns getting to another CFB Final Four, so we’re not relying too heavily on a massive Texas passing offense to up Wingo’s receiving yardage. With the 57% win rate and 3.8% EV evaluation, Wingo lower than 26.5 yards receiving is the best play probably all week.
This gives the whole Underdog entry a solid 17% chance of winning as a 6x Standard play, making if 5% +EV. Be sure to check out our Underdog Fantasy Optimizer for more +EV NBA expert picks, and you can get the entire Portfolio EV arsenal for just $29.95 per week or $99.95 per month!
