After rookie Chet Holmgren went down, most expected the Oklahoma City Thunder to roll over and tank for Victor Wembanyama. But after seven games, the Thunder sit at 4-3 and are on a four-game winning streak. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is even averaging 31.5 points per game. The Thunder are still home underdogs in the NBA odds, but it’s closer than expected. Bettors looking for a positive return should tail these Nuggets-Thunder picks and predictions or check out OddsShopper’s tools for other smart plays.
NBA Odds: Nuggets-Thunder Odds
Nuggets Underperforming on Defense
The Denver Nuggets are a solid 4-3, but they haven't been as dominant as some expected. Sure, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. need time to get back up to game speed -- but the Nuggets have just left a bit much on the table. They rank 21st in net rating (-2.8) behind their 12th-ranked offense (112.9) but rank a lowly 25th in defensive rating (115.7).
Denver's offense still looks really good. Nikola Jokic is nearly averaging a triple-double per game, Porter is shooting much better than he did last year and Aaron Gordon has looked great on the offensive glass. The Nuggets have an effective field-goal percentage of 55.3% as a team, which ranks sixth. They also rank 10th in turnover percentage (14%) and 16th in free-throw rate (0.26). Their offense has responded well to the take-foul rule changes -- the Nuggets rank fifth in fast-break points per game (17.3).
It's Denver's defense that has held the team back thus far. The Nuggets rank 26th in effective field-goal percentage allowed (55.1%), and, for all their offensive success in the fast break, the Nuggets rank 24th in fast-break points allowed per game (16.7). Denver has fared especially poorly against opposing point guards. They have allowed the fourth-most points (28.5) and 3-pointers (3.8) to the position. Guards Bruce Brown and Bones Hyland, who is questionable, own the two worst defensive ratings in Denver's rotation.
Thunder Not Shooting the Ball Efficiently
The Oklahoma City Thunder are a hard team to handicap. While they are just 4-3 straight-up, they are 6-1 against the spread. They covered against every team except the Timberwolves, who they failed to cover against by a mere 1 point. With Gilgeous-Alexander leading the way, the Thunder rank 11th in net rating (+1.6) behind their sixth-ranked defense (106.7). Their offense ranks a lowly 25th (108.4).
The Thunder have not shot the ball well. Their team's effective field-goal percentage (49.7%) ranks 27th. Starting guard Luguentz Dort has shooting splits of 35-21-77 through seven games. His fellow starter in the backcourt, Josh Giddey, owns splits of 41-25-67 through four. That said, the Thunder rank a solid third in turnover rate (12.1%) and eighth in fast-break points per game (16.3). Still, their struggles with efficiency outside of transition is a problem -- the Thunder rank 26th in blocks allowed per game (6.9) and have allowed the second-most to opposing centers (3.1).
Fortunately, the Thunder have the youth and length necessary to contend on defense. The Thunder rank 13th in effective field-goal percentage allowed (52.4%) and second in opponent turnover percentage (17.5%). They have allowed the third-fewest fast-break points per game (10.7) as well. While their defensive successes haven't extended to strong rim protection, as the Thunder rank 26th in points in the paint allowed per game (53.4), their scrappy defensive play has been encouraging.
Final Nuggets-Thunder Prediction & Pick
When Oklahoma City met Denver earlier this season, the Nuggets turned the ball over 18 times and won by only 5 points after entering the second half tied. That said, Denver entered the game on the back end of a back-to-back, while Oklahoma City entered it on the front end of one. With neither team playing again until Saturday, core rotation players should get extra minutes on both sides. More rest should help the Nuggets cover, but with public money pouring in on Denver and the line not budging, it's hard to warrant backing the Nuggets against the spread.
Enter Porter, who played only 28 minutes against the Thunder in their last meeting but still managed to rack up six rebounds. Porter ranks second on the Nuggets in rebound chances per game (12.9) and he rarely defers opportunities to grab boards. He has gone his posted total three times this year and in both of his last two outings.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma City's poor shooting has led the team to rank 26th in total rebounds allowed per game (57.1) and eighth in rebounds allowed to small forwards (8.8). Should Porter continue to get the rebounding chances he's gotten lately, he should easily surpass this number.
Nuggets-Thunder Pick: Michael Porter Jr. Over 6.5 Rebounds (-130) at FanDuel
Michael Porter Jr. 8+ Rebounds (+124 for 0.25 Unit) at FanDuel
