2023 North Carolina Football Predictions and Season Preview

North Carolina finished the 2022 season with a solid 9-5 record. Its only losses were to Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, North Carolina State, Clemson and Oregon. After a red-hot start, the team closed the year 0-4. However, it should be noted that all of its losses outside of Notre Dame and Clemson were by 4 points or less.

DraftKings Sportsbook has the Tar Heels win total at 8.0, juiced to the over at -130. They are also +1000 to win the ACC, which ranks behind Clemson and Florida State but tied for third with Louisville. Let’s dive into North Carolina’s college football season preview.

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2023 North Carolina Football Predictions & Season Preview

North Carolina Football 2023 Season Preview: Coaching Staff

Mack Brown now enters his fifth season in his second run as head coach of North Carolina. The Tar Heels have reached a bowl game in each of his four seasons since his return. They capped it off with his best finish since the return with a 9-5 record. On his staff, Brown has to replace Phil Longo as offensive coordinator. He will now turn to former UCF offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey to take over. On defense, Gene Chizik remains in place after taking over last year.

North Carolina Football 2023 Season Preview: Offense

Quarterback

Besides Caleb Williams, North Carolina might have the best quarterback in college football. Now entering his third season, Drake Maye has legitimate top-5 potential in next year’s NFL Draft. Last year, Maye completed 342 or 517 pass attempts (66.2%) for 4,321 yards (8.4 yards per attempt), 38 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Not only is Maye a top-3 passer in the country, but he has elite mobility. In 2022, Maye rushed 184 times for 698 yards and seven touchdowns, while taking 43 sacks. Maye will not have the same caliber of weapons this year, but he is a top-3 quarterback in the country ahead of the 2023 season. Behind him, the Tar Heels lost backup Jacolby Criswell, leaving Conner Harrell as the presumed starter. Harrell has not thrown a pass, but he joined the team as a 3-star recruit from the 2022 class. North Carolina also recruited 4-star freshman Tad Hudson in this year’s class. As long as Maye can stay healthy, this team should be set at quarterback for the near future.

Running Back

While Maye led the team in rushing last year, North Carolina returns most of its contributors at running back. Elijah Green led the way with 131 carries for 558 yards and eight touchdowns. He also caught 17 passes for 107 yards without a drop. He averaged 2.76 yards after contact per attempt with a 17.6% forced missed tackle rate. The Tar Heels also return Omarion Hampton, who rushed 88 times for 401 yards and six touchdowns last year. Hampton is 6-foot-0, 220 pounds, and also caught six passes for 40 yards. He averaged 2.37 yards after contact and forced a missed tackle on 28.4% of his attempts. Hampton is a 4-star recruit from the 2022 class and the 153rd player from that class. Caleb Hood, George Pettaway and British Brooks all return. Brooks did not play last year due to injury, but he rushed 31 times for a hyper efficient 295 yards in 2021. He also caught 12 passes for 55 yards and figures to play a role. Hood notched 43 carries for 250 yards, while catching 13 passes. Finally, Pettaway rushed 20 times for 93 yards and caught five passes last year. He also came in as a 4-star freshman last year and a borderline top-150 player. The Tar Heels lack a true stud at the top, but they return plenty of quality depth.

Wide Receiver

North Carolina lost its top two pass catchers in Josh Downs and Antoine Green. Together, the pair accounted for over 1,800 receiving yards last year. The next man up here should be J.J. Jones after 24 catches for 434 yards and two touchdowns last year. Jones is 6-foot-2, 210 pounds, and played out wide 96.2% of the time. His 0.85 yards per route ranked 66th among 68 qualifiers in the ACC last year. The Tar Heels likely will rely on transfers with some of their depth transferring out themselves. Devontez Walker comes over from Kent State after catching 58 passes for 921 yards and 11 touchdowns last year. He is 6-foot-3, 175 pounds, and played out wide 81.9% of the time. His 2.62 yards per route ranked third in the MAC last year. North Carolina also added Nate McCollum from Georgia Tech. McCollum is 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and caught 60 passes for 654 yards and three touchdowns last year. He played in the slot 92.6% of the time and his 2.14 yards per route ranked 14th in the ACC. If one of those transfers does not pan out, North Carolina still retains the services of Kobe Paysour and Gavin Blackwell. Last year, Paysour caught 29 passes for 324 yards and four touchdowns. At 6-foot-1, 185 pounds, he played in the slot 85.2% of the time and his 1.57 yards per route ranked 33rd in the ACC. Blackwell is 6-foot-0, 180 pounds, and caught 18 passes for 239 yards and one touchdown last year. He played out wide 96.3% of the time and logged a mediocre 0.92 yards per route. The Tar Heels did recruit a pair of 4-star freshman receivers in Christian Hamilton and Chris Culliver as well. While it is hard to see this crop of receivers living up to Downs and Green, there are a few names with upside among this group.

Tight End

With wide receiver coming in a little weak, North Carolina could opt to lean more heavily on an experienced tight end room. Kamari Morales, John Copenhaver and Bryson Nesbit all return from last year’s team. Nesbit is 6-foot-5, 230 pounds, and led the group in receiving with 35 catches for 507 yards and four touchdowns. He also played the fewest snaps at 361, blocking just 34% of those snaps. At 6-foot-3, 245 pounds, Morales played the most snaps at 488. He blocked on 55% of those, but also caught 39 passes for 358 yards and four touchdowns. Finally, Copenhaver caught 15 passes for 222 scoreless yards. Copenhaver is 6-foot-3, 240 pounds, and blocked on 55% of his 397 snaps last year. Between these three, North Carolina has an elite tight end room.

Offensive Line

The Tar Heels lost Brian Anderson and left tackle Asim Richards along the offensive line. They return right tackle Spencer Rolland, who played 979 snaps last year. He previously started for two seasons at Harvard before coming over to North Carolina. The other tackle could be William Barnes, who mostly started at guard last year. He did fill in at right tackle against Georgia State and he could transition out to the perimeter full time now. Last year, he played 918 snaps. Left guard Ed Montilus returns after 1,054 snaps last year. He was not great, but he now has 2,314 snaps under his belt. The other guard could be Coastal Carolina transfer Willie Lampkin, who started for three years with the Chanticleers, but most of that came at center. This is because North Carolina returns its starting center Corey Gaynor, who played 1,050 snaps last year. He has 3,151 snaps of experience in his six-year career. Jonathan Adorno also returns 215 snaps from last year at guard. He should play a role this year as well. This offensive line was not great last year, but another year of experience and the addition of Lampkin should help.

North Carolina Football 2023 Season Preview: Defense

The Tar Heels ranked 97th on defense in 2022. The ranking included the 93rd-ranked run defense, 61st-ranked pass rush and 98th-ranked secondary. Their defense lost a few players on the edge and multiple starters in the secondary. However, they added five transfers and three 4-star recruits to pick up the slack here.

Defensive Line

On the edge, the Tar Heels lost Noah Taylor and Chris Collins. This leaves a decent void at the position, but Kaimon Rucker returns 626 snaps. He ranked second on the team with seven tackles for loss, in addition to his 37 tackles and 3.5 sacks. On the other side, Desmond Evans is a candidate for more snaps after playing 277 last year. He logged 25 tackles and one tackle for loss during this playing time. If that does not work, North Carolina recruited a pair of 4-star recruits in Jaybron Harvey and Tyler Thompson.

On the interior, the Tar Heels return a pair of starters in Kevin Hester and Myles Murphy. The pair played 516 and 532 snaps last year. Murphy played a little better as a pass rusher with 1.5 tackles for loss and one sack, in addition to 29 tackles. Hester defended the run well with 49 total tackles and one tackle for loss. They also return Jahvaree Ritzie, who played 644 snaps last year. Ritzie logged 48 tackles, two tackles for loss and one sack, giving North Carolina a solid defensive line rotation.

Linebacker

The Tar Heels return both of their starters in Cedric Gray and Power Echols. Gray played particularly well, leaving the team with 145 tackles and 12 tackles for loss. He also broke up six passes and notched a pair of interceptions. Echols ranked second on the team with 103 tackles himself. He did not play as well in the pass game, but he is an above-average starter in the ACC. They also landed Florida State transfer Amari Gainer, who played just 77 snaps last year due to injury. Gainer previously started for three seasons with Florida State and has 1,504 snaps throughout his career.

Defensive Back

At corner, the Tar Heels lost Storm Duck and Tony Grimes this offseason. Fortunately, North Carolina hammered the transfer portal, bringing in Alijah Huzzie (East Tennessee State) and Armani Chatman (Virginia Tech). Huzzie has 30 starts to his name and earned FCS All-American honors last year. Chatman already has 1,946 snaps to his name, including three years of starting experience. They return DeAndre Boykins, who played 931 snaps last year. Boykins should play the slot here after ranking second on the team with seven pass breakups last year. He also recorded 67 tackles as a versatile defender. For depth Lejond Cavazos remains with the team after 329 snaps last year. This unit had its fair share of struggles last year, so it is hard to envision them getting much worse.

At safety, the Tar Heels lost Cam’Ron Kelly, but they return Giovanni Biggers, who played 777 snaps last year. Biggers ranked third on the team with 69 tackles, while breaking up two passes. The Tar Heels project to fill their second safety spot with a transfer. They landed Derrik Allen (Georgia Tech) and Antavious Lane (Georgia State) this offseason. Allen has 517 snaps in his three-year career, but he has never logged more than 200 snaps in any individual season. Meanwhile, Lane has three years of starting experience in the Sun Belt. Lane has been All-Sun Belt three times and will now look to make the jump to the Power 5 level.

2023 North Carolina Football Schedule & Predictions

North Carolina Football 2023 Schedule

The Tar Heels play a non-conference schedule consisting of South Carolina, Appalachian State, Minnesota and Campbell. While Campbell should be an easy win, the other three should come with relatively competitive spreads. Then the Tar Heels play Miami, Clemson and Pittsburgh among the tougher ACC teams. They dodge Florida State and Louisville, but the Tar Heels still have their fair share of tough games this season.

North Carolina Football Futures Bet & Prediction

North Carolina’s over/under on 8.0 wins is juiced to the over at -130. It is a fair enough price, but this schedule might be more treacherous than people think. The Tar Heels still have significant concerns on defense and they replace their top skill position players outside of Maye. With the under coming in at +110, this looks like the sharpest North Carolina offseason bet.

Best North Carolina Football Futures Bet: Under 8.0 Wins (+110 at DraftKings)

You can read the rest of Matt Gajewski’s 2023 college football season previews and predictions below!

2023 North Carolina Football Predictions and Season Preview

2023 North Carolina Football Predictions & Season Preview

North Carolina Football 2023 Season Preview: Coaching Staff

North Carolina Football 2023 Season Preview: Offense

North Carolina Football 2023 Season Preview: Defense

2023 North Carolina Football Schedule & Predictions

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2023 North Carolina Football Predictions & Season Preview

North Carolina Football 2023 Season Preview: Coaching Staff

North Carolina Football 2023 Season Preview: Offense

North Carolina Football 2023 Season Preview: Defense

2023 North Carolina Football Schedule & Predictions

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