After finishing the regular season 7-5, the Duke Blue Devils take on the 11-2 Troy Trojans as 7.5-point underdog in a game with a 44.5-point total. Let’s dive into our Duke-Troy odds, pick and prediction for this year’s 76 Birmingham Bowl. If you’re looking for more college football bets, check out our college football betting tools and our guide to betting on football.
76 Birmingham Bowl Pick: Duke-Troy Bet
76 Birmingham Bowl Odds
Odds via bet365
Duke: +245 | Troy: +305
Duke +7.5: -110 | Troy -7.5: -110
Over 44.5: -110 | Under 44.5: -110
Expert: Matt Gajewski
Time: Saturday, Dec. 23 at 11:00 a.m. ET
Duke-Troy News & Notes
Duke Absences: QB Riley Leonard, RB Jordan Waters, iOL Scott Elliott, iOL Justin Pickett, OL Graham Barton, CB Jaylen Stinson, DL Aeneas Peebles, Edge RJ Oben, LB Dorian Mausi, S Brandon Johnson,
Duke Coaching Changes: Mike Elko
Troy Absences: LB Jayden McDonald
Troy Coaching Changes: Jon Sumrall
Duke-Troy Comparison
| Metric | Duke | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| Pace | 90th | 80th |
| Overall Offense | 89th | 25th |
| Run Blocking | 79th | 125th |
| Pass Blocking | 64th | 78th |
| Pass Rate | 76th | 44th |
| Overall Defense | 56th | 10th |
| Run Defense | 93rd | 1st |
| Pass Rush | 50th | 24th |
| Coverage | 32nd | 27th |
76 Birmingham Bowl Pick & Prediction
The champion of the Sun Belt, Troy faces the 6-6 Duke Blue Devils after finishing 11-2 themselves. The 7.5 point spread in favor of Troy comes with a little surprised. However, the Duke opt outs explain most of this live movement in what should be a low-scoring affair.
On offense, Troy remains fully intact behind veteran signal caller Gunnar Watson. Watson doesn’t have much mobility, but he completes 60.8% of his passes for 8.1 yards per attempt, 27 scores, and only five interceptions. Troy’s offensive line remains a question protecting Watson, but the Trojans also have the NCAA’s second-leading rusher Kimani Vidal to fall back on. An offense firing on all cylinders, Troy has scored 30+ points in five of their last six games and over 28 in all six.
As for Duke’s defense, nearly the entire unit hit the portal. The team will be without six starters, poking major holes in one of the ACC’s best units. With that said, the Duke defense had begun showing cracks prior to the departures.
This unit allowed at least 19 points in six straight games, including 30+ to Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida State. The other opponents in that span included Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, and Louisville. For reference, Pittsburgh scoring 19 points is just as concerning as North Carolina scoring 47.
The Duke offense brings similar concerns with quarterback Riley Leonard opting out of the game. Leonard hasn’t played much recently, allowing Henry Belin IV and Grayson Loftis to earn snaps. Neither has been particularly good with sub-55% completion percentages on both sides. More importantly, Duke has been dealing with injuries to Scott Elliott and Justin Pickett on the offensive line. Future NFL lineman Graham Barton also opted out of this game, adding further concern to an already middling offensive line. With that said, Duke’s offensive line concerns aren’t new. The Blue Devils also retain their top two receivers Jalon Calhoun and Jordan Moore, which should ease some concerns.
Unfortunately for Duke, Troy only lost one starter on defense with linebacker Jayden McDonald entering the portal. This unit ranked top 27 in every major defensive metric, including the top overall run defense in the country. Duke has scored reasonably well of late, but they only faced two top 50 defenses in that span (Wake Forest, North Carolina). While pacing doesn’t really line up, Troy should have no issues scoring on a makeshift defense. As long as Duke can continue doing their part, efficiency should push this total over.
76 Birmingham Bowl Pick & Prediction and our Duke-Troy Bet: over 44.5 -110 at bet365
