We made it. College Football is officially back in action, and the 11-game appetizer we got in Week 0 has left me hungry for more.
My name is Tim Speros, and I’m pleased to be bringing you the goods for football in 2022!
This Saturday, we have a game between an Arizona team that can only improve from last year’s 1-11 performance and a San Diego State team that is looking to prove last year’s 12-2 record and trip to the Mountain West Championship game was not a fluke.
A matchup between the Pac-12 and the Mountain West with a ton of new faces on both sides should be fun. But for which school and which bettors? These teams played last year and San Diego State handed it to the Wildcats on their home turf, 38-14.
Let’s dive into all the college football betting odds and go over my Arizona vs San Diego State prediction for Saturday’s Week 1 game.
Arizona vs San Diego State Week 1 College Football Betting Picks & Prediction
San Diego State Offense
The Aztecs averaged a respectable 27.4 points per game in 2021 with most of their offense coming on the ground. The 174.9 rushing yards per game was good for third in the Mountain West only behind Air Force and Wyoming. The majority of those yards came from Greg Bell, who rushed for over 1,000 yards and nine touchdowns. He’ll be suiting up for the Detroit Lions next week.
Last year’s starting quarterback Lucas Johnson transferred to Montana, but he’ll be replaced by Virginia Tech transfer Braxton Burmeister. Burmeister, who will play as a Graduate student, threw for 14 touchdowns and four interceptions in 2021, the exact same numbers that Johnson had. Is he an upgrade? Possibly. He did play in a Power 5 Conference and rushed for 4.5 yards per carry in 2021.
The Aztecs have two returning starters at WR in Jesse Mathews and Tyrell Shaver, who combined for 11 TDs in 2021. The offensive line will have three new starters this season and will be blocking for a running back by committee until someone emerges as the lead back. We could see head coach Brady Hoke lean more on the passing game this season.
A new QB, RB and offensive line puts questions in the air about success, but luckily the Aztecs will ease into the season against an Arizona defense that gave up 31.4 points per game — third worst in the Pac-12.
Arizona Offense
The Wildcats were bad in 2021, averaging only 17.1 points per game — worst in the Pac-12. Fortunately, for Arizona fans it can only get better. Two transfers coming off big seasons will move into starting roles for Arizona.
Quarterback Jayden de Laura threw for 2,796 yards and 23 touchdowns for Washington State on his way to winning Pac-12 Offensive Freshman Player of the Year, while UTEP transfer WR Jacob Cowing torched defenders for 1,354 receiving yards — good for ninth best in the country. If these two can gel it should be a big improvement in the passing game from last year.
On the ground, the Wildcats will look to Auburn transfer D.J. Williams to move the chains but he’s going to have a big mountain to climb against a San Diego defense that had the second-best run defense in the nation.
San Diego State gave up a mere 77 yards per game and only six touchdowns on the ground. That defense lost LB Cam Thomas (11.5 sacks) and safety Trenton Thomas (3 INTs, 13 PD) to the NFL but is still returning seven starters.
Head coach Jedd Fisch did some good recruiting and will have four of ESPN’s top 300 players this season. Combine them with the aforementioned transfers, and these moves could improve their offense — and their win total — from 2021.
Is it enough to take the Wildcats and the points?
Arizona vs San Diego State Prediction
This is the first game of the season for both squads and there are a lot of new faces on both sides of the ball. You might think all of the turnover makes this decision hard but for me, it’s a no-brainer.
Yes, I think Arizona will win more than one game this season but its not happening in San Diego.
The Aztecs will open the season in the brand new state-of-the-art 35,000-seat Snap Dragon Stadium. The stands should be rocking and I think the Aztecs will rock the Wildcats for the second straight season.
Best NCAAF Bet: San Diego State -6.5 (BetMGM)
