After a high-scoring Tuesday slate of MACtion that saw us cash our lone bet, an over, we have another two-game card in store for Wednesday night. I’ve got my eyes on the matchup between the Ball State Cardinals and the Bowling Green Falcons. Let’s dig into today’s Ball State-Bowling Green odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 10 bet for Wednesday’s MACtion! As always, make sure to check out OddsShopper’s bet shopping pages to ensure you get the best deal on the market.
Ball State-Bowling Green Pick & Betting Prediction | Wednesday MACtion
Ball State-Bowling Green Betting Odds
Odds via bet365
Ball State: +180 | Bowling Green: -220
Ball State +5: -110 | Bowling Green -5: -110
Over 40: -110 | Under 40: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Wednesday, Nov. 1 at 7 p.m. ET
Ball State-Bowling Green Pick & Prediction
The Ball State Cardinals are not good at football. They are an ugly 2-6 and 1-3 in conference play. Their wins have come against FCS Indiana State and Central Michigan, both of which were home games. They remain winless on the road with a net road point differential of -104. Sure, two tough SEC matchups skew that number, but their net road point differential through two MAC games is a still-bad 32. Ball State ranks 125th in yards per play (4.3) and 61st in yards per play allowed (5.5).
The Bowling Green Falcons are more than good enough to beat up a bad Ball State team. They sit at 4-4 and are 2-2 in conference play. Bowling Green ranks 115th in yards per play (4.5) and 48th in yards allowed per play (5.3), giving the Falcons a slight edge, but the advanced metrics make their advantage clearer. Bowling Green is 100th in expected points added (EPA) margin compared to 128th-ranked Ball State. Bowling Green’s rushing offense, which ranks 50th in yards per attempt (4.4) and 64th in rush success rate (42.4%) should lead the way.
Quarterback is an issue for almost every MAC team this year, but it’s a bigger problem for Ball State. The Cardinals are now starting Kiael Kelly, who owns a passing efficiency grade of 88.6 this year and a career grade of 92.9. Bowling Green used two quarterbacks last week, Connor Bazelak and Camden Orth, both of whom have better numbers in that metric both this season and for their careers. Bazelak, a Missouri and Indiana transfer, owns a 113.7 this year. Orth owns a 115.3. Those aren’t good numbers, but they’re more than good enough to beat this Ball State team.
Two of the models that I look at when handicapping college football point to considerable value on the Falcons tonight. The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) projects Bowling Green for a 15.2-point win. Parker Fleming’s model projects Bowling Green for an 18.1-point win. That’s obviously a much wider margin than the 5-point spread available at bet365, so I recommend capitalizing on that number before it gets bid off the board. MACtion can always produce some wild results, but the Falcons should win by more than five far more often than they don’t.
Ball State-Bowling Green Week 10 MACtion Pick: Bowling Green -5 -110 at bet365
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