In the biggest matchup in the ACC this week we have No. 5 ranked Clemson 6-0 (4-0) visiting Doak Campbell Stadium to face the 4-2 (2-2) Florida State Seminoles. After a nail-biting double-overtime victory at Wake Forest in Week 4, Clemson has since had easy victories over NC State and Boston College. FSU should be motivated in this one after losing 17-19 to NC State last week when they had a chance to kick a game-winning field goal on their last possession but chose to go for it instead. This gave the Seminoles their second straight loss to a ranked opponent after losing to Wake Forest the week prior.
These teams have a long history against each other dating back to 1970. Florida State leads the all-time series 20-14 but Clemson has won the last six meetings including a 30-20 victory over the Seminoles last season. The total for this game is 51 with Clemson favored by 3.5 points. Let’s dive in and get to my best bet!
Clemson vs. Florida State Week 7 College Football Betting Picks
Tigers Will Run the Ball
The Tigers are led by junior quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, who has improved his game tremendously after completing just 55% of his passes and throwing 10 interceptions in 2021. Uiagalelei has completed 64% of his passes and has 14 touchdowns to just two interceptions this year. Clemons ranks third in the ACC, scoring 39.4 points per game but is just eighth in total yards with 425.3 per game.
The run game is led by sophomore Will Shipley, who has 446 yards and eight touchdowns on 76 attempts. Uigalelei is just behind Shipley with 67 attempts. Clemson has a solid 4.6 yards per attempt as a team. Florida State’s run defense is their weakness, as they rank 11th in the ACC allowing 155.3 yards per game. It’s likely Clemson will focus on running the ball against FSU as the Seminoles’ pass defense is the best in the ACC and 13th in the country, allowing just 170 yards through the air. The Tigers have a solid group of pass-catchers. Seven different players have caught a touchdown and have more than 10 receptions on the season. FSU’s solid coverage has allowed the front line to sack the quarterback 15 times, second-best in the ACC.
Seminole’s Run Game Will be Tested
The Seminoles have a run-heavy offense that averages 5.6 yards per attempt, the best in the ACC and 11th in college football. Treshaun Ward leads the pack with 488 yards on 72 carries while Trey Benson and Lawrence Toafilil both have more than 42 attempts and have combined for seven touchdowns. Junior quarterback Jordan Travis is averaging 5.9 yards on the ground, including a 71-yard burst last week vs. NC State. Travis rushed for 500+ yards and seven touchdowns in each of the last two seasons. This all sounds great and you may be thinking about placing some bets on the over for rushing props, but not so fast. The Clemson front seven may be the best in the country. A defense that has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards in college football includes three pre-season All-Americans: defensive tackle Bryan Bresee, defensive end Myles Murphy and linebacker Trenton Simpson. The Tigers also added defensive end, Xavier Thomas, back to the lineup after he missed the first five games of the season due to a foot injury. Thomas had five sacks in 2021. While he only played six snaps in his first game back vs. Boston College, he recorded four pressures and two sacks!
FSU has a solid core of wide receivers with Johnny Wilson, Ontaria Wilson and the brother of NFL wide receiver Michael Pittman, Mycah Pittman. All three have more than 18 receptions each. Travis can throw the ball and has recorded two games this season with more than 280 yards through the air. The Seminoles will likely have to throw vs. Clemson at some point. The Tigers allow 255 yards a game through the air, which ranks 10th in the ACC.
Clemson vs. Florida State Prediction
As much as I like points and hope for a repeat of the Clemson vs. Wake Forest double-overtime shootout, I don’t think we are going to get it in this one. These defenses are really, really good and I think points will be hard to come by. Clemson wins this game with more talent on the defensive side. Clemson was the best team in the ACC coming into the season and I think they end it that way as well.
Clemson is 3-3 against the spread while Florida State is 4-2 against the spread. These teams have a combined 5-7-0 over/under record. Three of Clemson’s four ACC games have gone under 51 points while FSU has only managed 17 and 21 points in their last two games respectively. I like the under in this one, as Clemson will hold the Seminoles to under 20 points, but my favorite bet is Clemson to cover 3.5 points as I believe they win by more than a touchdown. This defense is too good.
NCAAF Best Bet: Clemson -3.5 (-105, DraftKings)
