The Tampa Bay Buccaneers narrowly avoided a late-game comeback by the Falcons and moved to 3-2 last week. Tampa Bay hasn’t looked as sharp as it did in years passed, but the close losses to the Packers and Chiefs are forgivable. The books predict the Buccaneers will handily defeat the Steelers in Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh just got blown out by the Bills, but that’s forgivable as well. Rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett had to make his first-ever start against Buffalo’s elite defense, so some growing pains were inevitable. That said, life won’t get much easier for him this week — Tampa Bay’s defense ranks just one spot behind Buffalo’s in defensive defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA).
Buccaneers vs. Steelers Week 6 NFL Betting Picks & Predictions
Buccaneers vs. Steelers Betting Odds
Tampa Bay Playing Well, But Injuries Could Be a Problem
The Buccaneers dominated at the start of their Week 5 matchup, but they let the Falcons make things close at the end. Consecutive fourth-quarter touchdowns, propelled by a consistent rushing attack that took what the Buccaneers gave it, nearly gave the Falcons a shot at the win. That said, Tampa Bay deserves credit for its utter dominance in the first three quarters. The Buccaneers forced five Atlanta punts through that span and allowed one field goal attempt, which the Falcons missed. Atlanta totaled just 106 yards on its first five drives.
The Buccaneers played sharp complementary football in the win. Running back Leonard Fournette racked up 139 all-purpose yards and two scores. Wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin came through with a couple of chunk plays, but Tampa Bay mostly took things slow. Tom Brady has now completed 68.1% of his passes, which ranks fourth, for 6.35 net yards per attempt (NY/A), which ranks 12th. Brady ranks third in on-target throw percentage behind an offensive line that has allowed him to face pressure on only 12.1% of his dropbacks, an NFL-low. While the offense ranks a solid 13th in offensive DVOA, the unit ranks only 27th in yards per play (4.8).
Tampa Bay's defense has looked impressive so far, but injuries could cause problems in Week 6. Starting boundary cornerback Carlton Davis went down, as did his backup, Sean Murphy-Bunting. Starting safety Mike Edwards also exited late in the Week 6 win. Carlton will suit up, but Murphy-Bunting won't be available if he needs a few snaps off, and Edwards is questionable. Defensive end Akiem Hicks remains out as well. Although the Buccaneers currently rank third in defensive DVOA and fourth in yards per play allowed (4.7), those numbers could tick down if the secondary can't stay healthy. Tampa Bay's pass rush, which has generated pressure on 26.2% of opposing dropbacks, may need to step up.
Pickett Looks Much Better Than Trubisky
The Kenny Pickett era began last weekend, and it probably didn't go as well as Steelers fans had hoped. Pickett wasn't a cure-all for Pittsburgh's woes, but he did complete 65.2% of his passes for 310 net yards and a pick. While he didn't throw a touchdown, the final score of 38-3 is a bit misleading, as kicker Chris Boswell missed a pair of relatively short field goals, and the Steelers turned the ball over on downs from deep in Buffalo territory twice.
Still, all signs suggest Pickett is an upgrade over Mitch Trubisky. Pickett has a much higher completion percentage, far more net yards per attempt, a slightly higher on-target throw percentage and a much lower bad throw percentage. Three of Pickett's wide receivers racked up 50 yards or more for the first time this season. The tough matchup against Buffalo may cause some to start writing him off, but what quarterbacks haven't struggled against Sean McDermott's stingy defense? Unfortunately, Pickett may not get much help from the ground game. Running back Najee Harris has struggled and ranks 36th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) among 39 running backs with at least 40 carries.
Like the Buccaneers, the Steelers have serious injury issues on defense. Star pass rusher T.J. Watt went down early in the year and won't return for Week 6. Starting boundary cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon is yet to return to practice and remains out. Cornerback Cameron Sutton joined him on the sidelines after aggravating a hamstring injury last week, as did cornerback Levi Wallace, who suffered a concussion. All three will miss Sunday's game, along with safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. Those absences will cause big issues for a secondary that already ranked 27th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.5). The unit may not get much help from the pass rush, as the Steelers have pressured opposing quarterbacks on only 16.3% of their dropbacks, which ranks fourth-lowest.
Buccaneers vs. Steelers Prediction
The total had value earlier in the week before so many defensive backs got ruled out. The number has since jumped from the 43.5 touted in the early bets column to as high as 46. Although the Buccaneers' secondary likely won't skip much of a beat, Pittsburgh's unit has been completely decimated. That bodes well for Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady, who should feast in an increasingly pass-centered offense.
While the game script may not call for a ton of passing plays, the Buccaneers have leaned heavily on Brady this year. The star quarterback has thrown for 350-plus yards in his last two outings and is averaging 281.8 yards per game. Back the over on Brady's passing yard total against a second-team secondary and a bad pass rush before the number gets bid up much further.
Buccaneers vs. Steelers Prediction: Tom Brady Over 280.5 Passing Yards (-114) at FanDuel
Buccaneers vs. Steelers OddsShopper Model Prediction
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