Another week of NFL action has come and gone, but the Week 6 NFL betting odds have already been released. Bettors looking to get ahead of the headlines can find value on the Vikings and Bengals this week, as they’ll face opponents with considerable injury issues. Elsewhere, the Steelers and Buccaneers both suffered multiple defensive injuries in Week 5, so the total for their game could tick upward as the week progresses. Bettors looking for early Week 6 NFL betting picks and predictions should tails those plays for the reasons outlined below.
Sharp bettors bet early. Identifying games where future movement seems likely allows bettors to secure closing line value, or CLV, relative to the game’s final spread. Taking a team to cover a 2.5-point spread has a much better chance of hitting than taking that same team to cover even a 3.5-point spread. Bettors can secure more value now than they’ll get right before kickoff by getting their action down on the Week 6 NFL betting markets early.
Early NFL Week 6 Predictions & Betting Picks
Vikings vs. Dolphins: Quarterback Questions to Benefit Minnesota
The Minnesota Vikings are currently field-goal road favorites over the Miami Dolphins. Yet question marks are circling around Miami like vultures. Will Tua Tagovailoa return from his concussion this week? How about Teddy Bridgewater? If neither of them can play, will Miami sign someone else or trust Skylar Thompson? How long will star left tackle Terron Armstead miss with his ongoing toe injury? Tyreek Hill was seen wearing a walking boot after Sunday’s game — although the injury isn’t believed to be serious, will he face limitations at practice?
Bettors will get answers to those questions as the week progresses. Unfortunately for the Dolphins, those answers could easily swing this spread over the key number of -3. Rushing either Tagovailoa or Bridgewater back would be an even bigger public relations nightmare than Tagovailoa’s primetime head injury — especially if Armstead isn’t there to protect the blindside.
Fading the Dolphins feels sharp, but backing the Vikings has value as well. Minnesota’s offense ranks a pedestrian 16th in yards per play (5.5) but second in first downs per play (0.37) and seventh in third-down conversion percentage (42.8%). Quarterback Kirk Cousins could be playing better, but most of his struggles have come against aggressive pass rushes — fortunately for him, Miami ranks third-worst in pressure percentage (12.8%).
Vikings vs. Dolphins: Vikings -3 (-106) at FanDuel
Steelers vs. Buccaneers: Defensive Injuries Will Move Total
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers both took a beating in Week 5. The Steelers already had injury problems in their secondary, but slot cornerback Cameron Sutton re-injured his hamstring and boundary cornerback Levi Wallace suffered a concussion. They joined boundary cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon, who failed to practice last week, and star pass rusher T.J. Watt on the sidelines. Defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi also got hurt and couldn’t return to the contest.
The Buccaneers also took a beating in the secondary. Boundary cornerback Carlton Davis injured his hip and couldn’t return. Backup boundary cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting injured his quad and also couldn’t return. Tampa Bay’s defensive performance suffered down the stretch and nearly handed the Falcons a comeback win. Head coach Todd Bowles hasn’t yet offered any additional information.
Since both Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh will likely have to play without key defensive assets this week, the total should tick up as news about their defensive injuries seeps into the media. The Steelers won’t be able to limit Tom Brady and Tampa Bay’s wide receivers without any of their Week 1 starters at cornerback. Tampa Bay may have an easier task stopping a rookie quarterback like Kenny Pickett, but the Steelers have enough talent at wide receiver to cause problems if Murphy-Bunting or Davis miss time.
Steelers vs. Buccaneers: Over 43.5 (-105) at FanDuel
Bengals vs. Saints: Buy Low on Cincinnati After SNF
The New Orleans Saints are overrated in this spot. The Saints have consistently underperformed this season and are just 2-3 against the spread. New Orleans needed a trip to London to help cover against Minnesota and a botched rugby-style punt to cover against Seattle. Gadget player Taysom Hill has scored more touchdowns than either of New Orleans’ actual quarterbacks, Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston.
The Saints have lingering question all over their roster. Winston is yet to return to practice and was doubtful for Week 5. Dalton got the nod to start instead, but the Saints haven’t trusted him with the keys to the offense, opting instead to lean on Hill and the ground game. New Orleans’ lengthy injury report at wide receiver may be to blame, as Jarvis Landry missed Week 5 and Michael Thomas hasn’t practiced since Week 3. Now rookie Chris Olave may join them on the sidelines after a concussion.
Although the Saints will probably get a key piece or two back from injury, the Cincinnati Bengals appear underrated in this spot. Cincinnati started the year 0-2 but then won twice and nearly beat Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. The Bengals may have found a way to win if Tee Higgins had been available, but the star wideout aggravated a pre-existing injury so Cincinnati opted to rest him for much of the game. Cincinnati’s weakness has been their poor offensive line play this year, but New Orleans’ defense ranks fourth-worst in pressure rate (14%), so Joe Burrow should get a welcome reprieve on Sunday afternoon. Look for this number to tick up to -2.5 throughout the week.
Bengals vs. Saints: Bengals -1.5 (-110) at DraftKings
