The college football playoff race continues to look like Georgia, Ohio State and Alabama — and then everyone else. But the top three itself remains volatile, with Alabama falling two spots after an injury to Bryce Young kept them in a close game with Texas A&M. Following injury news is crucial for sharp college football bettors, and two of the below early Week 6 college football betting picks and predictions will lean on such information for an edge. Expect movement in Minnesota and Kentucky’s favor as the week progresses.
Sharp bettors bet early. Identifying games where future movement seems likely allows bettors to secure closing-line value, or CLV, relative to the game’s final spread. Taking a team to cover a 2.5-point spread has a much better chance of hitting than taking that same team to cover even a 3.5-point spread. The Week 6 college football column secured closing-line value in two spots, although only one play hit. The column is now 13-5 in finding CLV and 10-8 for hits.
Week 7 College Football Betting Picks & Predictions
Minnesota vs. Illinois: Fade the Banged-Up Illini
This number already moved by a full two points on Monday morning, but bettors can find value up to the key number of seven. Although the No. 24 Illinois Fighting Illini have looked great this season and are a fluky loss to Indiana away from an undefeated record, they suffered a boatload of injuries at key positions against Iowa last week.
The Illini may have to play without starters at quarterback, wide receiver, defensive back and linebacker. Quarterback Tommy Devito reaggravated an ankle injury and couldn’t return. He has completed 68.9% of his passes this season for 7.1 yards per attempt, nine scores and two interceptions. His backup, last year’s starter Artur Sitkowski, completed 50% of his passes for 4.8 yards per attempt, six scores and two interceptions in five games. Whoever starts under center will have to play without shifty receiver Isaiah Williams, who ranks second on the team in receiving yards. The injured defensive players, defensive back Tahveon Nicholson and linebacker Isaac Darkangelo have combined for 43 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, one sack and one interception this year.
The Golden Gophers enter Week 7 coming off a bye. According to head coach P.J. Fleck, they should get star running back Mohamed Ibrahim back from an injury that kept him out against Purdue. The Gophers’ offense ranks 23rd in yards per play (6.2) and 21st in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI). Their defense has been even better — that unit ranks 10th in yards allowed per play (4.3) and sixth in the FEI. As a team, the Gophers rank seventh in the FEI, well above 36th-ranked Illinois. This is a fantastic spot to buy low on Minnesota, but expect the number to creep up throughout the week.
Minnesota vs. Illinois Prediction: Minnesota -6.5 (-110) at DraftKings
Mississippi State vs. Kentucky: Buy Low on the Wildcats
The Kentucky Wildcats were a top-10 team just two weeks ago. But a loss to Ole Miss, an injury to star quarterback Will Levis and a subsequent loss to South Carolina have nearly cost the Wildcats their spot in the AP Poll. Fortunately for the Wildcats, Levis intends to return for this week’s home game against Mississippi State. Mark Stoops has been cagey about the star quarterback’s status, but that shouldn’t come as any surprise.
Any good news about Levis would immediately move this spread. Levis is a projected first-round quarterback and ranks 11th in passing efficiency among 118 eligible FBS quarterbacks. The Wildcats had ranked 65th in yards per play (5.5) with Levis in the lineup but fell to 78th (5.2) after his only absence. Still, their offense ranks 44th in the FEI and their defense ranks 17th. The Wildcats rank 20th as a team, which trails 13th-ranked Mississippi State, but not enough to warrant the books listing Kentucky as a touchdown dog at home.
Further, the Bulldogs have some issues of their own. The defense has relied on takeaways, as the Bulldogs rank 18th in takeaways per game (2) but only 49th in yards allowed per play (5.3). Star defensive back Emmanuel Forbes, who accounts for four of those takeaways, went down with an injury early against Arkansas. While he managed to return later and should play in Week 7, his status is just as worthy of monitoring as Levis’. This number will likely move over the key number if Levis gets announced as the starter, so buy the +7 before it disappears.
Mississippi State vs. Kentucky Prediction: Kentucky +7 (-110) at DraftKings
Vanderbilt vs. Georgia: Bulldogs Favored By Too Wide a Margin
The Vanderbilt Commodores held the No. 9 Ole Miss Rebels to a 24-point road win last week. Vanderbilt still failed to cover a generous 17-point spread and fell to 2-4 against the spread on the year, but the Dores have shown enough life lately to warrant backing them at nearly +40. True freshman quarterback A.J. Swann ranks 41st in passing efficiency. Vanderbilt’s offense ranks a solid 58th in yards per play (5.6).
Georgia’s defense hasn’t been as good as last year’s unit. The Bulldogs rank 22nd in yards allowed per play (4.8). Further, the offense has struggled on occasion. The Bulldogs couldn’t get on the board against Missouri two weeks ago and they needed a late-game rally to secure the win. Likewise, the unit couldn’t put up enough points to truly run away from Kent State. Georgia is only 3-3 against the spread this year after failing to cover against Missouri, Samford and Kent State — the only games for which they closed as 30-plus point favorites.
The Commodores may need an outrageously hot start or some garbage-time points to cover this spread, but Georgia has shown no ability to cover as a favorite of more than 30 points this year, so expect the spread to move in Vanderbilt’s favor as the week progresses. Further, the Bulldogs have a bye week following this matchup, so Georgia may feel no need to rush banged-up players like running back Kendall Milton and linebacker Smael Mondon Jr. back for this week’s contest. This number sits at +38 or +38.5 at most books, so head to DraftKings for a slightly off-market number.
Vanderbilt vs. Georgia Prediction: Vanderbilt +39.5 (-110) at DraftKings
