After a thrilling year, the college football season will come to an end on Monday. The 14-0 Georgia Bulldogs will take on the 13-1 TCU Horned Frogs in the College Football Playoff National Championship game. The Frogs will have their work cut out for them — the sportsbooks currently list TCU as a 12.5-point underdog. Bettors looking for a positive return should tail these national championship game predictions or check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp CFB plays. Here are our Georgia-TCU predictions for Monday.
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College Football Playoff Odds: Georgia-TCU Odds & Prediction
Georgia Prediction: Have the Bulldogs Replaced the Tide?
The Georgia Bulldogs are a tier above every other team in college football. The Bulldogs haven't lost since last year's SEC championship game, and their last loss to a non-SEC team came in the Sugar Bowl four years ago. Kirby Smart's Bulldogs have seemingly replaced Nick Saban's Crimson Tide at the apex of college football.
The numbers prove how elite the Bulldogs have been. Georgia leads in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI). Georgia took down second-ranked Ohio State in the opening round and fourth-ranked Tennessee in the regular season. Their offense ranks an overpowered second in yards per play (7.1), largely by virtue of aggressive downfield passing by quarterback Stetson Bennett, who averages 8.9 yards per attempt. Bennett has the benefit of throwing to the nation's best tight end, Brock Bowers, who leads the team in receiving yards.
Georgia's defense has led the way for the last few years. The Bulldogs won last year's national championship on a pick-six by Kelee Ringo, who will play again tonight. Their defense leads the FEI. The Bulldogs rank 24th in yards allowed per play (4.9) and fifth in points allowed per game (15.9). Their defensive line ranks an elite fifth in average line yards -- TCU is yet to play a top-15 defense in the metric. However, Georgia has looked vulnerable against the pass lately, as Ohio State's C.J. Stroud threw for 348 yards and four scores last weekend.
TCU Prediction: Can They Pull Off Another Upset?
Few preseason predictions had the TCU Horned Frogs scoring a college football playoff bid, let alone a national championship appearance, at the start of the season. But first-year head coach Sonny Dykes and his opening-week backup quarterback, Max Duggan, have taken the FBS by storm. The Horned Frogs scored upset wins over big-name programs like Oklahoma, Texas and Michigan this year.
But it's better to be lucky than good, and the Horned Frogs have been lucky this year. They needed some late-game heroics to beat Texas Tech, which was then down to its third-string quarterback. They barely beat Kansas State in the regular season after a massive second half comeback but lost to them in the Big 12 championship. TCU ranks only seventh in the FEI. Their defense ranks only 19th in the index and 55th in yards allowed per play (5.4).
TCU's gritty offense has gotten the program this far. Duggan has refused to let big-name opponents or massive first half deficits get in his head. He was a Heisman finalist and has averaged 8.9 yards per pass attempt this year. His best receiver, Quentin Johnston, went for 1,066 receiving yards on just 59 catches. But with TCU's star running back, Kendre Miller, apparently 50-50 to play in Monday's contest, Duggan and Johnston could have to carry the team. Backup running back Emari Demercado looked solid against Michigan but has averaged almost a half-yard less than Miller per carry this year.
Final College Football National Championship Prediction
The TCU Horned Frogs may have scored a surprising upset win over Michigan, but they had the benefit of several weeks to plan and get healthy following their loss to Kansas State. They will now play the Georgia Bulldogs with less than eight days' worth of notice. While the Bulldogs are in the same boat, shrunken game timelines benefit the more talented team. TCU has one 5-star player to Georgia's 15.
Bettors should expect the Horned Frogs to start Monday night's contest off slowly. TCU ranks just 19th in points per first half (18.4) and 54th in points allowed per first half (12.6). In contrast, Georgia ranks fifth in both points per first half (21) and points allowed per first half (7.5). Expect the Bulldogs to build an early lead and never look back.
Most books list the first half spread for TCU-Georgia at -7.5. However, bettors can still tail this Georgia prediction and get the key number of 7 at DraftKings and WynnBet. Bettors who can wager at the latter book, which is legal in nine states, can get juice of -115. Those unable to do so can head to DraftKings instead for a price of -120 -- although the book is offering up to a 100% profit boost for tonight's game. Users yet to register at DraftKings can even score $200 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager!
Final College Football National Championship Prediction: Georgia First Half -7 (-115) at WynnBet
