For those familiar with prop betting, PrizePicks puts an interesting spin on player projections. Users create lineups of player props with a shot to 10x their money with certain constructions. This article will dive into the college football bowl games on Saturday for the College Football Playoff, giving analysis on the best CFB props to consider.
CFB Props PrizePicks: College Football Playoff
Donovan Edwards – Over 13.5 Receiving Yards
After battling injury himself though a portion of the 2022 regular season, Donovan Edwards recently took over as Michigan’s lead back after an injury to Blake Corum. Prior to the Corum injury, Edwards still played a pivotal role for Michigan, including operating as the team’s preferred third down back. On the year, Edwards accounts for 21 targets, averaging 19.9 receiving yards per game.
Game script does not work in his favor here, with Michigan favored to beat TCU by 7.5 points. However, the game does possess a 58 total and Edwards looks unlikely to leave the field outside of clear breather spots. Against Ohio State, Edwards handled 49 of 62 snaps, which should put him on the field for a vast majority of Michigan drop backs. The running back position handles a 12% target share for the Wolverines, which puts Edwards’ receiving projection right at 23 yards when referrencing the Stokastic projections. Overall, this stands out as one of the better values on the board.
Emeka Egbuka – Over 69.5 Receiving Yards
Backdooring their way into the College Football Playoff, Ohio State draws Georgia as a 6.5 point underdog in a game with a 63 total. At receiver, Ohio State possesses a pair of alphas in Emeka Egbuka and Marvin Harrison. Ahead of this game, PrizePicks has a slightly different projection on the pair of receivers, when both have received almost identical opportunity this year.
Overall, Harrison averages 96.4 yards per game on 9.1 targets. Egbuka comes in with 86.6 yards per game on 8.1 targets. While Georgia presents a tough matchup for the entire Ohio State team, game script indicates that the Buckeyes should have to throw here. Not to mention, Ohio State will play this game without premier back TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams has also been banged up down the stretch.
In this particular game environment, Egbuka projects for 77.8 receiving yards, giving him slightly more value against the PrizePicks line over Harrison. It should also be noted that Julian Fleming comes in as an over play for us as well. He projects for 50.5 receiving yards as the clear WR3 in the offense, when PrizePicks has his line listed at 37.5
Max Duggan – Over 23.5 Rushing Yards
Despite losing the Big 12 title game to Kansas State, TCU enters the College Football Playoff behind their one loss as a 7.5 point underdog to Michigan in a game with a 58 total. Like much of the TCU roster, Max Duggan battled injury down the stretch. TCU opened the year with an early bye, giving them one of the toughest latter half schedules in the country.
Over the last three games, Duggan has at least seven designed rush attempts in two of the three. That third game, Duggan only saw two designed attempts, but that came in an absolute blowout of Iowa State. Theoretically healthier now that he’s another month removed from injury, Duggan should be able to take advantage of his mobility here. Finishing with 404 cumulative rushing yards, Duggan has already displayed this ability multiple times. One concern could be a Michigan pass rush ranked 16th in the country.
However, TCU’s excellent offensive line ranks 25th in pass blocking, which should help keep Duggan upright. The Heisman finalist did take 24 sacks, but elevated rushing attempts should be expected in a game with everything on the line. Overall, he projects for 32 rushing yards on the back end of the Stokastic projections.
