With the fist slate of bowl games in the books, the New Year’s Six are ever closer. However, college football fans and bettors must still get through another week before the big-name contests get underway. The college football betting odds have been open for weeks now, but action hasn’t yet poured in on every contest. Bettors should tail these early college football predictions and picks for the second week of bowl season, which includes the New Orleans, Independence and Gasparilla Bowls.
Sharp bettors bet early. Identifying games where future movement seems likely allows bettors to secure closing-line value, or CLV, relative to the game’s final spread. Taking a team to cover a 2.5-point spread has a much better chance of hitting than taking that same team to cover even a 3.5-point spread. Getting CLV also allows bettors to middle before the game even starts. Let’s dive deeper into some college football picks.
College Football Predictions & Picks
New Orleans Bowl Prediction: South Alabama-Western Kentucky
The 10-2 South Alabama Jaguars will face the 7-5 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers in the Big Easy on Wednesday night. South Alabama’s only losses came against two teams that ended the year ranked — No. 18 UCLA and No. 23 Troy — and both came by a score or less. South Alabama finished the year at a solid 61st in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI). Western Kentucky ended the year right behind in 62nd.
However, the Hilltoppers have looked considerably more vulnerable than the Jaguars, and they’re dealing with far more opt-outs. Western Kentucky dropped games to two Power 5 programs, Auburn and Indiana, as well as non-conference Troy and both UTSA and North Texas. Starting quarterback Austin Reed entered the transfer portal before backing out but starting center Rusty Staats and starting left tackle Gunner Britton didn’t have the same change of heart. Reed’s second-leading receiver, Daewood Davis, and his two best tight ends all opted out or entered the portal.
With a limited receiving corps, the Hilltoppers will struggle against a motivated Jaguars defense. Western Kentucky’s offense relied on the passing game all year, as the program ranked fifth in passing play percentage (60.5%). However, South Alabama ranks 19th in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.4) and 11th in defensive havoc rate. With no defensive opt-outs reported, the full unit should take the field and cause problems for Reed on Wednesday afternoon. South Alabama makes for a sharp bet value down to -6.5.
College Football Prediction: South Alabama -4.5 (-110) at DraftKings
Independence Bowl Prediction: Houston-Louisiana Lafayette
The 7-5 Houston Cougars and 6-6 Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns will meet in the Independence Bowl over in Shreveport, Louisiana, on Friday afternoon. The Cajuns struggled in their first year without Billy Napier at the helm, and the Cougars regressed after making it to the AAC championship game last year. Houston will get one final game with star wide receiver Nathaniel “Tank” Dell before he starts to prepare for the NFL draft.
Houston finished the year as the best team for over bettors. The Cougars went over in 10 of their 12 contests as their offense averaged the 11th-most points per game (37.2). Although the Cougars twice failed to beat the closing number, they missed by only one point against Tulane, and their 21-point miss against East Carolina happened because the Pirates scored just three points all game. At 57.5, this total is tied for the fourth-lowest number the Cougars have received all season.
It’s unclear why this number is so low. The Ragin’ Cajuns may not boast a prolific offense, but these teams have combined to score 64.5 points per game. They have also combined to allow 57.8 points per game. Both teams rank in the top 50 in seconds per play and passing play percentage. Last year’s Independence Bowl saw UAB and BYU combine for 59 points, well above the closing total of 54.5, and a similar outcome should be in the cards come Friday.
College Football Prediction: Over 57.5 (-110) at Caesars
Gasparilla Bowl Prediction: Wake Forest-Missouri
The 6-6 Missouri Tigers barely achieved bowl eligibility and will now face the 7-5 Wake Forest Demon Deacons in the Gasparilla Bowl on Saturday. Unfortunately, the scary defense that propelled Missouri to this point took several hits. The Tigers won’t have defensive ends Isaiah McGuire and D.J. Coleman as well as safety Martez Manuel. The trio had combined for 25 havoc plays, including half of the program’s 34 sacks.
The Tigers must now face an impressive Wake Forest offense without the defensive players who had carried the team. Missouri ended the year ranked 38th in the FEI because of its 19th-ranked defense. The offense ranked a pathetic 71st, and it now won’t even have its leading receiver, Dominic Lovett. Meanwhile, Wake Forest ranked 39th in the FEI, largely because of star quarterback Sam Hartman’s 17th-ranked offense. Hartman wasn’t perfect, but he ranked 12th in passing efficiency this year. Missouri’s Brady Cook ranked just 61st.
Wake Forest has lost some players but not enough to warrant such a narrow spread. The Demon Deacons lost their second-string running back, third-best receiver and second-best corner. Those losses aren’t great, but the Demon Deacons are still in much better shape than the Tigers. Expect Wake Forest to get the best of a depleted Missouri defense on Saturday evening.
College Football Prediction: Wake Forest Moneyline (-113) at FanDuel
