The New Orleans Saints will head north to Cleveland for a battle with the Browns next Saturday. The sportsbooks are listing the total for that game at a lowly 31.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook. The Saints-Brown total has been getting bid down across the market this morning, and it looks poised to close at historic lows.
Why Is the Saints-Browns Total So Low?
The Browns and Saints both feature relatively slow, run-first offenses, but that isn’t enough to explain this total. Instead, bettors need only turn to the weather forecast for an explanation. Cleveland is projected for below-freezing temperatures and gusty winds with a decent chance of snow.
Weather forecast for Cleveland Saturday ? pic.twitter.com/1wP8veaQcH
— Rod Walker (@RodWalkerNola) December 19, 2022
Worse, although precipitation is uncertain on Saturday, it’s a near-guarantee on Thursday and Friday. With such low temperatures on Saturday, precipitation from earlier in the week — be it snow or rain — will freeze. Field conditions will prove tough for both sides, even if they don’t have to contend with an active snowstorm.
How Historic Is this Total?
The books are opening totals at low numbers for Week 16 in advance of wintry storms across the country. Six of Saturday’s 11 contests have totals currently set below 40. Outdoor games in Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Nashville and Chicago are all scheduled for this week, and only the Bills-Bears matchup has a total above 40.
Still, none of the other games likely to face bad weather have a total nearly as low as this one. The Saints-Browns matchup is set 6 points below the next lowest. But at 31.5, the Saints-Browns total is entering historic territory; of the 5,316 NFL games played since 2003, exactly eight — barely 0.001% — had closing totals at that number or below. And it’s only Monday — this number could close even lower.
Saints-Browns Betting Tip
With a total so low, the over should be a lock, right? No; bettors should approach this total with caution. Of the eight games to feature a closing total of 31.5 or lower, five managed to stay under the number. Teams averaged 29.6 points per game in those contests.
Although it’s comical to see an NFL game with a total set lower than the one for this year’s Army-Navy game, Saturday’s forecast will make it difficult for Deshaun Watson and Andy Dalton to get the ball downfield. Expect both offenses to lean on their respective rushing attacks in a matchup reminiscent of 2017’s Snow Bowl.
