Unless you’re a current student or alumni it was hard to get excited for a Duke vs. Northwestern football game the past few seasons.
Maybe times have changed? Maybe not.
Luckily, we can bet on the game no matter what. These teams combined for six wins in 2021 and were both horrendous on defense. Northwestern was the worst in the Big Ten against the run and the Blue Devils … well, they were really in hell. A total of 518 yard per game was DEAD last in the FBS. On the positive side, they’re looking up! Literally.
With a number of players transferring in and out for both schools we could see the some excitement on campus or at least have some fans stay till the end of a game.
We are off to a good start as both teams won their opener last week. Northwestern was a 12.5 point underdog to Nebraska but won the game outright 31-28 on neutral territory in Ireland. Duke took care of Temple 30-0 and is on pace to smash the 40 points per game they gave up last season. Both teams are 1-0, someone is going home with an L. The books seem to have weighted the Wildcats win more as they are 10 point favorites on FanDuel. The total for this game has settled at 58.5 so expect some points to be scored but by who, and how many can we expect? Let’s find out.
Duke vs Northwestern Prediction & Week 2 Picks
Duke Offense
The Blue Devils offense was not as bad as their defense in 2021 as they averaged 418 yards per game. The good news is that they are returning four starters on the offensive live that helped produce a 1,000 yard rusher in Mataeo Durant, but he graduated.
In week 1, against an inferior opponent, the Blue Devils ran for 172 yards led by quarterback Riley Leonard, who accounted for 64 of them. Leonard also threw for 328 yards and two TDs. Jalone Moore went for 90 yards on six catches, a returning starter who led the team with three TD receptions in 2021. The leading receiver from 2021, Jake Bobo, transferred to UCLA. Of course, 30-0 sounds like a blowout but the Duke offense managed only two field goals in the second half and was 1-for-9 on third down.
No running back had more than eight carries and this offense has to show me a lot more before I think they can score on a legitimate opponent. Temple has only had eight winning seasons in the last 20 years.
The Northwestern defense was not good in 2021 and Chris Bergin and his team-leading 132 tackles are gone but the linebackers for coach Pat Fitzgerald are usually pretty solid. In their week 1 victory over Nebraska, the Wildcats’ defense had nine sacks and forced three turnovers. This makes me lean Northwestern defense over an unproven Duke offensive line.
Northwestern Offense
The Wildcats offense is led by veteran quarterback Ryan Hilinksi, who got reps as the back up in 2021 but his 113 QBR as a freshman-starter for South Carolina in the SEC tells me he has what it takes to be successful. The experience showed last week as he threw for 314 yards, two TDs, and finished the game with a 85.7 QBR.
The combo of Evan Hull and Cam Porter rushed for 214 yards and two TDs on a solid 4.6 yards per carry. Hilinski spread the ball around to nine different receivers with three completions over 30 yards. The offense was 7-for-17 on third down and had a successful fourth down conversion. A spread-out offense that showed up in the clutch puts them in prime position to take on the Cobra Kai motto, Strike First — Strike Hard (man am I pumped for season five).
The Duke defense will be tested early and likely will falter against this Big Ten offense. The talent they faced last week against Temple just does not compare.
Duke vs Northwestern Prediction
The Duke offense was a one-man show against Temple and if that happens again this week the Northwestern Wildcats should be able to hone in on Riley Leonard and force some turnovers. The total for this game is at 58.5 while the spread opened at 8.5 but since has moved to 10.
The only thing that may concern a bettor is the hangover the Wildcats might have from playing in Ireland last week.
A hangover? I doubt it.
These kids are young, in shape, and should be able to recover rather quickly. I think the Wildcats run away with this one and cover easily against an unproven one-dimensional Duke offense.
Although Duke won this matchup in 2021, Northwestern is 12-5 against ACC opponents since 1998. My prediction is 34-14 Wildcats. This leads me to my best bet …
Best NCAAF Bet: Northwestern -10 (-115) | Under 58.5
