After finishing the regular season 8-4, the North Carolina Tar Heels take on the 8-4 West Virginia Mountaineers as 6.5 point underdogs in a game with a 54.0-point total. Let’s dive into our North Carolina-West Virginia odds, pick and prediction for this year’s Duke’s Mayo Bowl. If you’re looking for more college football bets, check out our college football betting tools and our guide to betting on football.
Duke’s Mayo Bowl Pick: North Carolina-West Virginia Bet
Duke’s Mayo Bowl Odds
Odds via bet365
North Carolina: +210 | West Virginia: -260
North Carolina +6.5: -110 | West Virginia -6.5: -110
Over 54.0: -110 | Under 54.0: -110
Expert: Matt Gajewski
Time: Wednesday, Dec. 27 at 5:30 p.m. ET
North Carolina-West Virginia News & Notes
North Carolina Absences: QB Drake Maye, WR Tez Walker, TE Kamari Morales, TE Bryson Nesbit, TE John Copenhaver, RB Elijah Green, CB Tayon Holloway, S Don Chapman
North Carolina Coaching Changes: N/A
West Virginia Absences: DL Michael Lockhart, LB Lance Dixon, S Hershey McLaurin, S Keyshawn Cobb, RB Justin Johnson, WR Ja’Shaun Poke, WR Cortez Braham
West Virginia Coaching Changes: N/A
North Carolina-West Virginia Comparison
| Metric | North Carolina | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Pace | 8th | 111th |
| Overall Offense | 36th | 29th |
| Run Blocking | 100th | 63rd |
| Pass Blocking | 51st | 11th |
| Pass Rate | 44th | 128th |
| Overall Defense | 51st | 95th |
| Run Defense | 69th | 87th |
| Pass Rush | 29th | 83rd |
| Coverage | 37th | 101st |
Duke’s Mayo Bowl Pick & Prediction
North Carolina plays an up-tempo, pass-heavy scheme, while West Virginia relies on the run. The Tarheels enter this game as underdogs, due to multiple opt outs at key positions, while West Virginia remains intact. This sets up West Virginia for a showcase performance in Neal Brown‘s redemption season.
Starting with the North Carolina offense, Drake Maye and Tez Walker will both opt out of this game. This leaves Conner Harrell as the presumed starting quarterback for North Carolina. Harrell has 21 career snaps, but appears to possess solid mobility. He will also play behind a solid offensive line, allowing pressure just 18.6% of the time. This unit also paved the way for Omarion Hampton to rush for 1,442 yards, while catching 26 passes. When North Carolina does throw JJ Jones, Nate McCollum, and Kobe Paysour should be the main options. The Tar Heels will be down their top three tight ends, but the receiver depth should find some success against a makeshift West Virginia secondary.
Speaking of, West Virginia’s main departures in Michael Lockhart and Hershey McLaurin come on defense. On the year, this defense proved one of the worst pass funnels in the country, ranking 101st in pass coverage. The Mountaineers played a little better against the run, but still ranked 87th. Overall, North Carolina’s entire offense hinges on the 21 career snaps of Harrell.
As West Virginia, the offense morphed into a slow, run-heavy scheme under mobile signal caller Garrett Greene. Greene rushed for 708 yards, while completing 53.1% of his passes for 8.5 yards per attempt. Greene’s underlying metrics look even better, with 29 big time throws and just 8 turnover worth plays. Better yet, he plays behind one of the best offensive lines in the country, allowing an excellent 17.5% pressure rate. Finally, West Virginia found something special in running back Jaheim White, who rushed for 792 yards (8.2 yards per carry).
This two-pronged rushing attack should also find success against a North Carolina defense with a weakness against the run. The Tar Heels ranked 69th in run defense, allowing 4.3 yards per carry to opposing rushers. For an ACC team, they also faced a relatively weak schedule of quarterbacks. Most of their competent opponents like Spencer Rattler, Tyler Van Dyke, Haynes King, and Brennan Armstrong all easily eclipsed 8.0 yards per pass. With so many holes in the Tar Heels, backing West Virginia makes sense here.
Duke’s Mayo Bowl Pick & Prediction and our North Carolina-West Virginia Bet: West Virginia -6.5 (-110) at bet365
