After finishing the regular season 8-4, the Clemson Tigers take on the 7-5 Kentucky Wildcats as 5.0-point favorites in a game with a 45-point total. Let’s dive into our Clemson-Kentucky odds, pick and prediction for this year’s TaxSlayer Gator Bowl. If you’re looking for more college football bets, check out our college football betting tools and our guide to betting on football.
TaxSlayer Gator Pick: Clemson-Kentucky Bet
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl Odds
Odds via bet365
Clemson: -205 | Kentucky: +170
Clemson -5.0: -110 | Kentucky +5.0: -110
Over 45.0: -110 | Under 45.0: -110
Expert: Matt Gajewski
Time: Friday, Dec. 29 at 12:00 p.m. ET
Clemson-Kentucky News & Notes
Clemson Absences: CB Nate Wiggins, LB Jeremiah Trotter, CB Toriano Pride, S Andrew Mukuba, OL Mitchell Mayes, WR Beaux Collins, WR Cole Turner, TE Sage Ennis, OL Walker Parks, OL Marcus Tate, S Sheridan Jones, CB Jeadyn Lukus, DL Ruke Orhorhoro
Clemson Coaching Changes: N/A
Kentucky Absences: CB Jalen Geiger, DL Keaten Wade, TE Izayah Cummings
Kentucky Coaching Changes: N/A
Clemson-Kentucky Comparison
| Metric | Clemson | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Pace | 47th | 122nd |
| Overall Offense | 93rd | 52nd |
| Run Blocking | 95th | 97th |
| Pass Blocking | 72nd | 58th |
| Pass Rate | 67th | 35th |
| Overall Defense | 2nd | 43rd |
| Run Defense | 3rd | 43rd |
| Pass Rush | 27th | 76th |
| Coverage | 4th | 45th |
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl Pick & Prediction
After struggling to begin the year, the Clemson Tigers finished with four straight wins over quality opponents Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and South Caroline. Meanwhile, Kentucky sputtered down the stretch in SEC play, losing to Alabama and South Carolina before upsetting Louisville in the regular season finale. For two late season bowl teams, each roster remains surprisingly in tact, setting up a strong contest here.
On the Clemson offense, Dabo Swinney has further committed to his mediocre signal caller Cade Klubnik. Overall, Klubnik underwhelmed in 2023 with a 62.1% completion percentage for 6.1 yards per attempt, 19 scores, and 17 turnover worthy plays. Clemson doesn’t really have elite weapons in the pass game and their offensive line allowed a 23.8% pressure rate, before losing Mitchell Mayes to the transfer portal and Marcus Tate to injury. They do have two capable backs in Will Shipley and Phil Mafah, but Klubnik and his receivers have not consistently shown the ability to score.
On the other side, Kentucky really only lost defensive lineman Keaten Wade and corner Jalen Geiger to the portal. This defense ranked 43rd in overall defensive efficiency, but allowed 30+ points in five of their final seven games. This did come against some of the SEC’s elite offenses and Louisville. Overall, this defense has three elite players in corner Maxwell Hairston, linebacker D’Eryk Jackson, and defensive lineman Deone Walker. However, the gaps between these players have gotten Kentucky in trouble at times.
As for Kentucky’s offense, they’ve also been limited by erratic quarterback play. Devin Leary has a 56% completion percentage for 7.1 yards per attempt, 23 scores, and 21 turnover worthy plays. The offensive line has also allowed their fair share of pressure at 25.1%. This projects as a major advantage for Clemson. However, if Leary can stay upright, he has three capable receivers in Dane Key, Tayvion Robinson, and Barion Brown, who combined for nearly 1,500 yards. They also convinced 1,000 rusher Ray Davis to play in this game as he prepares for the NFL Draft.
On defense, Clemson lost a slew of defensive backs to injury/transfer in Andrew Mukuba, Nate Wiggins, Toriano Pride, Jeadyn Lukus, and Sheridan Jones. This unit had to move players into their secondary from other positions just to field a roster. Clemson also lost all-conference linebacker Jeremiah Trotter as he prepares for the NFL. However, this defense still has an elite defensive line consisting of Xavier Thomas, Tyler Davis, TJ Parker, and Justin Mascoll. Ultimately, this matchup likely comes down to Clemson’s 27th ranked pass rush against Kentucky’s 52nd ranked offensive line. If the pass rush can’t get home, this could be a long day for Clemson’s secondary.
TaxSlayer Bowl Pick & Prediction and our Clemson-Kentucky Bet: Kentucky +5.0 (-110) at bet365
