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Sun Bowl Pick: Oregon State-Notre Dame Bet (Dec. 29)

After finishing the regular season 8-4, the Oregon State Beavers take on the 9-3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish as six-point underdogs in a game with a 41.5-point total. Let’s dive into our Oregon State-Notre Dame odds, pick and prediction for this year’s Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl. If you’re looking for more college football bets, check out our college football betting tools and our guide to betting on football.

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl Pick: Virginia Tech-Tulane Bet

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl Odds

Odds via bet365
Oregon State: +190 | Notre Dame: -230
Oregon State +6.0: -110 | Notre Dame -6.0: -110
Over 41.5: -110 | Under 41.5: -110
Expert: Matt Gajewski
Time:
Friday, Dec. 29 at 2:00 p.m. ET

Oregon State-Notre Dame News & Notes

Oregon State Absences: QB DJ Uiagalelei, QB Aidan Chiles, RB Damien Martinez, WR Anthony Gould, TE Jake Overman, TE Jack Velling, OL Taliese Fuaga, CB Jermod McCoy, S Akili Arnold, LB Easton Mascarenas-Arnold, LB Calvin Hart, LB Makiya Tongue

Oregon State Coaching Changes: HC Jonathan Smith, OC Brian Lindgren

Notre Dame Absences: QB Sam Hartman, Audric Estime, TE Holden Staes, TE Mitchell Evans, WR Tobias Merriweather, WR Chris Tyree, WR Rico Flores, WR Braylon James, OL Joe Alt, OL Blake Fisher, OL Rocco Spindler, OL Zeke Correll, CB Ramon Henderson, CB Cam Hart, CB Thomas Harper, DL Nana Osafo-Mensah, LB Marist Liufau

Notre Dame Coaching Changes: OC Gerad Parker

Oregon State-Notre Dame Comparison

MetricOregon StateNotre Dame
Pace106th101st
Overall Offense8th9th
Run Blocking2nd24th
Pass Blocking88th30th
Pass Rate82nd89th
Overall Defense45th5th
Run Defense41st10th
Pass Rush96th13th
Coverage42nd3rd

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl Pick & Prediction

Perhaps the bowl game most effected by opt outs, both Notre Dame and Oregon State have been gutted by the NFL and transfer portal. Overall, both teams registered successful seasons. Oregon State lost their final two games to Washington and Oregon, but finished 8-4. Notre Dame lost to Ohio State, Louisville, and Clemson on their way to a 9-3 record, setting up a clash between two programs evaluating depth.

Starting with Oregon State, the Beavers lost most of their coaching staff and their top two quarterbacks. Surprisingly, third stringer Ben Gulbranson actually has a few starts under his belt. He boasts a 63.2% completion percentage for 7.4 yards per attempt, ten scores, and seven turnover worthy plays. This offense will be at far less than 100% with running back Damien Martinez away from the team. Receiver Anthony Gould and offensive tackle Taliese Fuaga also departed for the NFL. Fuaga’s departure looks particularly concerning after Oregon State allowed a 26.5% pressure rate with him in the picture.

As for the Notre Dame defense, the Irish did not lose as many bodies as initially expected. While corner Cam Hart will turn pro and a few other depth pieces hit the portal, a number of key contributors remain in place. Notably, studs Howard Cross III, Jovantae Jean-Baptiste, Jordan Botelho, JT Bertrand, and Jack Kiser will all play in Notre Dame’s front seven. The Irish also hold together most of their third ranked secondary, outside of Hart. They should have no issues stopping a depleted Oregon State offense.

As for Notre Dame’s offense, the Irish look equally as depleted. Quarterback Sam Hartman departed for the NFL, along with 1,000-yard rusher Audric Estime. Notre Dame lost four transfer portal receivers after inexplicably rotating all year. Four of their five starting offensive linemen are not listed on the bowl depth chart, including future NFL tackles Joe Alt and Blake Fisher. Even their top two tight ends Mitchell Evans and Holden Staes will not play due to injury and the transfer portal.

However, Oregon State’s defense also lost some key members. Secondary pieces Jermod McCoy and Akili Arnold hit the transfer portal. The team is also depleted at linebacker, losing Calvin Hart and Easton Mascarenas-Arnold. Oregon State ranked 96th in pass rush and 41st in run defense, where most of their players return. Even with a depleted Notre Dame offense, their depth should move the ball situationally in this matchup.

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl Pick & Prediction and our Oregon State-Notre Dame Bet: Notre Dame -6.0 (-110) at bet365

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