The 6-6 Wisconsin Badgers and 7-5 Oklahoma State Cowboys will meet at Chase Field for this year’s Guaranteed Rate Bowl. Both teams had disappointing seasons, but Wisconsin is a sizeable favorite in the college football odds. Bettors looking for a positive return should tail these Guaranteed Rate Bowl predictions or check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp CFB plays. Here are Wisconsin-Oklahoma State odds and predictions for Tuesday.
College Football Odds: Guaranteed Rate Bowl Odds
Wisconsin Ousting Interim Head Coach
Wisconsin imploded this year. After a 2-3 start, the Badgers parted ways with head coach Paul Chryst and promoted defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard. The players then rallied around Leonhard -- only for the administration to announce the hiring of Cincinnati's Luke Fickell. Leonhard, a former starter at Wisconsin, will step away from the program following the Guaranteed Rate Bowl.
Wisconsin will have to improvise without a number of key offensive players on Tuesday night. Although the Badgers ended the year ranked 37th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), their offense was only 68th, and a handful of key players won't suit up. Starting quarterback Graham Mertz is off for the Gators. Starting center Joe Tippmann, an All-Big Ten honorable mention, will enter the NFL draft. Four tight ends won't play due to the transfer portal or injuries. Wisconsin will likely lean on star running back Braelon Allen (who should be healthy) and the running game, which ranks 47th in average line yards and 51st in yards per rush attempt (4.5).
The Badgers impressed on defense this year and were 18th in the FEI. Leonhard's unit ranks 12th in yards allowed per play (4.6) and third in yards allowed per rush attempt (3). The Badgers have owned the line of attack this year -- they are 11th in average line yards and 12th in sack rate. Although, replicating that success may prove difficult now that star nose tackle Keeanu Benton has opted out, along with linebacker Nick Herbig. The two had combined for 25.5 tackles for loss and 15.5 sacks. Cornerback Jay Shaw, who leads the team in passes defended, also opted out.
Mike Gundy Looking For 12th Bowl Win
Oklahoma State failed to meet high expectations this year. After a solid 6-1 start, which included a narrow loss to TCU and a big win over Texas, the Cowboys went a pathetic 1-4 down the stretch. Starting quarterback Spencer Sanders struggled, got hurt, then struggled some more. He has since entered the transfer portal, along with several other players, leaving veteran head coach Mike Gundy shorthanded for Tuesday night. His Cowboys ended the year ranked only 45th in the FEI.
Oklahoma State will struggle offensively without Sanders. It would've struggled with him too, but Gundy must now start either Gunnar Gundy, his son, who has a passing efficiency of 106.8, or Garret Rangel, who is at 102.5. Gundy outranks only six FBS quarterbacks to attempt at least 125 passes this year in the metric; Rangel is ahead of only two. Neither quarterback will get much help from the backfield, as leading rusher Dominic Richardson won't play after entering the transfer portal. The Cowboys rank just 109th in yards per rush attempt and 106th in average line yards.
Oklahoma State's defense won't bail out the terrible offense either. The defense is 78th in the FEI this year and gives up the 30th-most yards per play (5.8). The Cowboys have fared especially poorly against the run, as they rank 102nd in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.7) despite being 18th in average line yards. Their pass rush ranks a pathetic 118th in sack rate (4.2%). With multiple starters along the defensive line opting out for Tuesday night's contest, Oklahoma State might not be able to stop much on the ground.
Final Guaranteed Rate Bowl Prediction & Pick
Wisconsin won the Las Vegas Bowl at Allegiant Stadium last year. Oklahoma State won the Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium last year. These teams will now play in a baseball stadium, the Arizona Diamondbacks' Chase Field, on Tuesday night. Neither team should care much, but the young players getting their first shots at big playing time will.
Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State's longtime head coach, is 13-8 against the spread in neutral-site games and 10-6 against the spread in bowl games. His impressive 11-5 bowl record includes games as prestigious as the Fiesta Bowl and as irrelevant as the Independence Bowl. Gundy has often found a way to motivate his teams for these games, and Tuesday's matchup against a depleted Wisconsin squad should be no exception.
Bettors should consider this game a true toss-up. Neither side's team will look much like what fans saw during the regular season because of the transfer portal and opt-outs. As such, getting Oklahoma State on the moneyline at odds greater than +150 feels like a decent half-unit wager. Bettors should head to DraftKings Sportsbook, where a $5 moneyline bet can yield $150 in free bets for new users -- the best price on the market.
Final Guaranteed Rate Bowl Prediction for Wisconsin-Oklahoma State: OSU Moneyline (+160 for 0.5 Unit) at DraftKings
