Coming off a dominant win over rival Oklahoma, the No. 22 Texas Longhorns will try to keep their momentum rolling forward when they host the Iowa State Cyclones on Saturday afternoon. Texas has bounced back from a loss at Texas Tech to win two in a row, and after dismantling the Sooners 49-0 last week, expect the Longhorns to come into this matchup with plenty of confidence.
Iowa State started the season 3-0 before dropping their last three contests to Big 12 opponents. Matt Campbell and company are in close to must-win territory, and beating the Longhorns would go a long way in getting the Cyclones season back on track.
With four straight games against AP Top 25 opponents on deck, Texas can’t afford to drop this game against a struggling Iowa State team. The Cyclones, on the other hand, will look to halt a three-game losing streak in which the team lost each game by one possession. Iowa State hasn’t lost four in a row since 2016, Campbell’s first season as head coach.
Iowa State vs. Texas Predictions and Betting Picks
Despite three straight victories over Texas, Iowa State finds themselves as 15.5 point underdogs on Saturday due to their current form. The Longhorns opened as 14-point home favorites at most sportsbooks, with the line moving as much as 2.5 points in their favor over the week. With an over/under set at 48.5 points, scoring should be at a premium, and Iowa State will need to rely on its stifling defense to stay in this game.
The question is, can the Cyclones underwhelming offense score enough to stay within the number?
Is Texas a Deserving 16.5 point Favorite?
After starting the season 3-0, Iowa State has looked out of sorts in dropping its last three games, and the main culprit has been an offense that has averaged just 15 points across the three-game losing streak. That’s quite the decline from a group that scored 32 points per contest through the first three games of the season. After years of having one of the best rushing attacks in the country, the Cyclones are currently ranked 111th in the nation with a rush rate of just 45%. Averaging just two yards per carry and 56 rushing yards per game against conference opponents, it’s safe to say the run game has been non-existent over the past three games.
Without much of a running game to speak of, Iowa State’s offense has been reliant on the arm of redshirt sophomore Hunter Dekkers, who has thrown 38 passing attempts per game and has averaged 6.7 yards per attempt. He’s completed 67% of his passes while throwing for 11 touchdowns and six interceptions.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Texas’ offense has been one of the best units in the country. Through six games, the Longhorns are averaging 38.8 points per game and 6.9 yards per play. In the two games that quarterback Quinn Ewers has finished, Steve Sarkisian’s bunch have averaged 6.95 yards per play and 50.5 points.
While Texas surely missed Ewers while he was gone, junior running back Bijan Robinson more than carried the load in his absence. One of the top running backs in the country, Robinson has a touchdown in every game this season and has tallied 10 in total. Over the past four games, Robinson has rushed for 6.5 yards per carry while averaging 135 rushing yards per game.
Can Iowa State’s Defense Stop Texas’ Offense?
With a struggling offense, the defense has continued to remain the backbone of the program while holding opponents to fewer than 14 points per game. Despite three straight losses in conference play, the defense is allowing the fewest passing yards (187), rushing yards (91), and points per game (13.7) in the Big 12.
Facing an offensive line that has only given up a combined four sacks and paved the way for Robinson to average better than five yards per carry and 100 yards per game, Iowa State’s defensive line needs to set the tone early, and that starts with star defensive end Will McDonald IV. After recording two of the Cyclones’ three sacks against Kansas State last week, McDonald needs only two more to set the Big 12 career record.
If the Cyclones are to make it four straight wins against Texas, its defense will be the reason why.
Iowa State vs Texas Prediction
Despite their recent struggles, it has not been as easy task to blow this Iowa State team out under Matt Campbell. Following his first season in Ames in 2016, the Cyclones haven’t lost a game by more than 17 points. Its largest defeat came back in the 2020 season opener against Louisiana by exactly 17 points in a game the Ragin’ Cajuns returned both a punt and a kick for a touchdown. The only other loss by more than 10 over that time span came by 14 back in 2018.
While Texas is undoubtedly the better team here, the hype train is rolling a little bit too fast right now for the Longhorns following its 49-point win over Oklahoma in the Red River Showdown. Because of that, sportsbooks are forcing bettors to lay three scores on Texas facing an Iowa State that has lost its last three games.
Don’t buy the hype. Take the points with the Cyclones and feel good knowing that Matt Campbell is 30-17 against the spread as an underdog, covering by an average of 4.8 points per game.
Best NCAAF Bets: Iowa State +15.5 (-112, FanDuel)
