Minnesota is 4-1. Illinois is ranked…What is happening in the Big Ten West?
This week’s game between the Minnesota Golden Gophers and the Illinois Fighting Illini is a surprisingly crucial matchup in the division.
Illinois is 2-1 in conference play, but might be working with a backup quarterback this week. Meanwhile, Minnesota is looking to move to 2-1 in conference Big Ten play with their suddenly impeccable quarterback.
Despite Illinois being ranked, Minnesota is laying almost a full touchdown in Champaign on Saturday. Is that too many points? Which team has the edge in this one?
Minnesota vs Illinois Predictions and Week 7 Picks
Minnesota is a Complete Team
We are six weeks into the season and Minnesota’s Tanner Morgan is PFF’s top-rated quarterback.
Morgan put together the three best games of his career against Western Illinois, Colorado and Michigan State. He finished those three games with a 92.5 PFF passing grade and seven touchdowns to just one interception. More impressively, Morgan finished with a double-digit YPA.
Morgan then laid a giant egg at home against Purdue. Morgan went 18-for-33 with no scores and three interceptions as Minnesota lost to Purdue by 10 as 9.5-point favorites. It was a classic PJ Fleck moment.
But Minnesota isn’t just good this year because of Morgan. The Gophers are a complete team that also has a good offensive line, and a star running back in Mohamed Ibrahim who missed a significant portion of last season after being on a record-setting pace.
mohamed ibrahim has looked fantastic coming off his achilles tear. good for him https://t.co/i7Opyn5N6Q
— Ray G ? (@RayGQue) September 17, 2022
The Gophers returned their top five pass catchers, which has clearly done wonders for Morgan. Four receivers have double-digit receptions and all have a YPR above 15.5.
Their defense is good, too. The Gophers are excellent against the run, stuffing opposing attacks at a top-25 rate and only allowing 3.9 YPC. They have two of the best safeties in the Big Ten and rank second overall in PFF’s coverage grades.
It’s going to be really hard to get by Minnesota’s defense. And it should be easy for them to shut down the Illinois offense.
Illinois Looks to Pound the Rock
Bret Bielema just wants to run the ball, although that’s partly because quarterback Tommy DeVito can be very shaky.
DeVito is still unconfirmed for this week’s matchup, but he’s made one Big Time Throw in the last three games, so Illinois should be no worse off without him.
Illinois will feature their running game regardless of who is under center. They have picked up 195 rush yards per game this season on over 40 attempts a game. They’ve only been average efficiency-wise (62nd in Rush Success Rate) and have been horrific when it counts the most (115th in Points Per Opportunity).
It’s tough when the whole team is being handicapped by an offensive line that’s 75th in Line Yards and 118th in PFF’s Pass Blocking grades.
Still, the Illini offense hasn’t had to do much. They have arguably the best defense in the nation, ranking top five among all FBS teams in the following categories:
- Rush Success Rate allowed (1st)
- Defensive Line Yards (3rd)
- Havoc created (2nd)
- Points Per Opportunity Allowed (1st)
- PFF’s Coverage grades (4th)
Illinois is allowing just 228 yards per game and a paltry 67 rush yards at 2.3 YPC. Bielema knows how to build a defensive line.
Illinois hasn’t played an elite offense yet, so this could be smoke and mirrors. However, I have yet to see a way that anyone can beat this Illinois defense. They have every inch of the field covered.
Minnesota vs Illinois Prediction
These are two of the slowest paced teams in the nation. Minnesota is third-to-last in seconds per play (31.5) while Illinois is outside the top 80 (27).
Moreover, these teams just want to pound the rock. Bielema’s squad is 33rd in rush rate (33rd) while Minnesota goes to the ground at a top-10 rate (64.9%).
This will set up as your classic Big Ten battle. These two will run the ball, punt the ball, and play defense. We’re getting a Rock Fight, and the total under 40 reflects that.
It’s really hard to cover a double-digit spread in this type of game script, especially on the road. I’d make Illinois closer to a four-point underdog than a seven-point one, and I’ll grab the points in this battle.
Best NCAAF Bet: Illinois +6.5 (-110) at DraftKings.
