There is nothing better than MACtion. Toledo is the class of the MAC and is now 2-0 in conference play after dominant wins over Central Michigan and Northern Illinois. Anything can happen in the MAC, but the Rockets are ready to claim the crown.
They shouldn’t have any issues dismantling Kent State, who just dropped a game to Miami (Ohio) as a 5.5-point favorite. The Golden Flashes are bad on defense and horrific on special teams. Do they have enough firepower to keep this within the number or win outright? Or will Toledo roll over them without any issues?
Kent State vs. Toledo College Football Week 6 Picks & Predictions
Kent State Has Upside After Tough Schedule
Despite returning just one starter on the offensive line, the Flashes have been surprisingly effective running the ball. Kent State is a run-first team that is top-40 in rush success rate and is picking up over 200 yards per game.
Some of that is thanks to dual-threat quarterback Collin Schlee. Schlee led two touchdown drives in the MAC title game last season and has held the starting job since then. He’s rushed for over 280 yards at 5 yards per carry and he has also put together a surprisingly effective 9.1 yards per attempt through the air.
Sadly, Schlee can only do so much. Kent State’s defense is 117th in success rate overall and is even worse on standard downs, allowing teams to stroll down the field with ease. The secondary is 126th in PFF’s coverage grade, meaning teams can get anything they want through the air.
The special teams unit makes Schlee’s job even harder. Kent State is terrible at kicking off, ranking 111th in average starting field position allowed to opponents. They give their opponents a short field and then don’t defend it properly. That makes it hard for Kent State to win games.
The good news is that the Golden Flashes have played a wildly tough schedule. Miami (Ohio) is underrated, and two of their losses came to Oklahoma and Georgia. The Flashes put up a pretty good fight in both games, only losing to Georgia by 17 as 44.5-point underdogs. Kent State might make a big move going forward.
Toledo Strong on Both Sides of the Ball
Toledo’s run defense is really good. It is top 15 nationally in rush success rate allowed and is allowing less than 150 yards rushing per game at less than 4 yards per carry. Toledo returned all four starters on their defensive line and it is once again the best defensive line in the MAC. They bolstered their linebacking core from a season ago, as well.
Toledo has some holes on defense, specifically when it comes to creating havoc and preventing explosive plays. However, the Rockets are a menace to opposing offenses in standard downs and force other MAC quarterbacks to beat them from behind the chains.
C.J. Stroud and Braxton Burmeister were able to do it, but there may not be another team that can.
Offensively, Toledo is very similar to Kent State. Dequan Finn is a great dual-threat quarterback, and the Rockets have been great at running the ball with him in the fold. Finn can throw the ball a bit, although he has more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws this season, which creates some pause. That said, he can look like Cam Newton at times against MAC defenses.
Toledo is a much better tackling team and a much better coverage team than Kent, per PFF’s grades, which plays heavily to the Rockets’ advantage. Surprisingly, Toledo boasts an even worse special teams than Kent State. This is shaping up to be an interesting matchup.
Kent State vs. Toledo State Pick
Both teams have a run-heavy attack and a dual-threat quarterback, but Toledo is great at stopping the run and will have a great defensive line facing a bad Kent State offensive line. Kent State will run into a wall in this game.
Meanwhile, Toledo has a poor run defense and is even worse against the pass. Finn and the Rocket offense should have a field day against Kent State on offense, while the matchup plays to the defense’s strength.
This looks like a comfortable Toledo win. This line should be closer to two touchdowns than one, but the Rockets are a fine play as long as the spread stays under double digits.
Best NCAAF Bet: Toledo -7.5 (-105) at DraftKings | Buy to -9.5 (-110)
