The No. 22 Penn State Nittany Lions narrowly avoided disaster with their Week 1 win over the Purdue Boilermakers. Still, the Big Ten East team picked up the road win and now sit at 2-0 on the year. Next up: a trip down to Auburn, Ala. for a date with the Tigers. The sportsbooks predict Penn State will win a narrow one over Auburn, as the Nittany Lions have a field-goal advantage across the college football betting markets.
Auburn enters the Week 3 contest with nothing but wins over teams in the FCS or the Group of 5. While the rushing defense has looked strong like last season’s, the offense has struggled under new quarterback T.J. Finley. That bodes poorly for the Tigers, even in a home matchup against a Big Ten team.
Penn State vs. Auburn Week 3 College Football Betting Picks
Penn State vs. Auburn Betting Odds
Does Penn State Have Another Elite Rusher?
When the Nittany Lions added five-star running back Nick Singleton, the Miles Sanders and Saquon Barkley comparisons wrote themselves. Singleton underperformed against Purdue with only 31 yards on 10 rushes, but he exploded against Ohio last week. He tore up the MAC member's defensive front for 179 yards on just 10 carries. The Nittany Lions won by 36.
Quarterback Sean Clifford also looks good. He tossed for 282 yards and four scores against Purdue, and he threw for 213 yards and a score before getting pulled against Ohio. It's early, but Clifford ranks 51st in passing efficiency thus far, which slots him ahead of Bryce Young. After two games, the Nittany Lions rank 17th in total offense with 489 yards per game.
That said, the offensive line is still working on stuff, and the defense isn't perfect. The Nittany Lions have allowed seven sacks and 11 tackles for loss this year, although most of those came against Ohio, and two came against backups Drew Allar and Christian Veilleux. Penn State is allowing only 80.5 rushing yards per game, which is consistent with the school's top-25 ranking in adjusted line yards from 2021. However, the Nittany Lions surrendered 365 passing yards to Purdue in Week 1, so they may be vulnerable to a solid passing attack.
Auburn Looking to Turn Cold Streak Around
The Auburn Tigers haven't been themselves lately. The Tigers went 6-5 in 2020 and 6-7 in 2021 and lost bowl games in both years. The Tigers then ranked 30th in recruiting for the 2022 class. Thus far, Auburn is continuing to underperform on the field. The Tigers throttled FCS Mercer in Week 1, but they then struggled against the Mountain West's San Jose State. The Spartans led by a field goal at halftime, and the Tigers won by just eight points.
Auburn must lean on the running game because of deficiencies in the passing game. Starting quarterback T.J. Finley has tossed for only 279 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions this season. Backup Robby Ashford has thrown for another 101 yards and a pick. Finley currently ranks 88th in passing efficiency among 122 quarterbacks. Only one Auburn wide receiver, Koy Moore, caught a pass in the first half of last Saturday's game against San Jose State.
Another slow start like Saturday's would doom Auburn against No. 22 Penn State. But even if the Tigers can get something rolling early, Finley's struggles in the passing game render the offense too one-dimensional. If Penn State can stuff the run and force Finley to make plays, the 20-year-old quarterback may struggle to keep Auburn in the game. Head coach Bryan Harsin is also only 3-4 against the spread against ranked opponents at Auburn.
Penn State vs. Auburn Prediction
Even if the solid Auburn rushing defense can stuff Singleton, Sean Clifford has proven that Penn State can contend through the air. That said, I'm unsure how to read the market moving forward. At least one book, FanDuel, has moved the line from PSU -3 to PSU -3.5, but plenty of books haven't crossed over the key number yet. Auburn looks like the sharp bet -- the Tigers have drawn 76% of the cash on just 52% of the tickets -- but the public may be correct here. Auburn has shown nothing this season to warrant betting on them at home in Week 3.
If this line behaves how it should, it would be wise to get action down before Saturday morning. Penn State could easily get steamed over the key number by then. Should such movement happen, I'm open to buying Penn State up to around a 5.5-point favorite, but bettors should keep such plays below a full unit.
Best NCAAF Bet: PSU -3 (-110 at Caesars) | Buy to PSU -5.5 at 0.5 Unit
