The Mountain West is a truly ugly conference this season.
It’s so ugly that San Jose State sits atop the West division with its 2-0 record, just a half-game ahead of UNLV that’s 2-1.
Fresno State had such high hopes entering the season. But they lost to a late-game field goal to Oregon State in Week 2 and then superstar quarterback Jake Haener suffered an injury against USC. The Bulldogs are now 1-4 and backup quarterback Logan Fife will start his third straight game.
Can injury-riddled Fresno State get a grip against a San Jose State team playing at the top of their game? Or will the Spartans roll as 8.5-point favorites?
Let’s dig in.
San Jose State vs. Fresno State College Football Week 7 Picks & Predictions
Spartans Playing Good Football
The Spartans aren’t the best 4-1 team in the nation. The last three wins are over UNLV, Wyoming, and Western Michigan.
However, the Spartans won those three games by a combined score of 107-29. They are taking care of business on both sides of the football, scoring over 30 points in all three and holding two opponents to single digits.
The most impressive game for the Spartans this season was on the road against Auburn. The Tigers aren’t playing good football, but for San Jose State to travel to Auburn and lose by only eight points as 24-point underdogs is an impressive feat for a Mountain West team.
Hawaii transfer Chevan Cordeiro has fared well. He’s only completed about 58% of his passes but he doesn’t make mistakes and adds a lethal dual-threat option. He also has built quick chemistry with his trio of dangerous receivers and is being protected by an offensive line that’s top-15 nationally in PFF’s Pass Blocking grades.
But Cordeiro is doing just enough for the Spartan defense. San Jose State is allowing just 3.6 YPC and only 150 pass yards per game. They’ve been extremely efficient at preventing successful rushes (top 30 in Rush Success Rate allowed) and in the red zone (top 25 in Points Per Opportunity Allowed).
That’s to be expected considering coach Brent Brennan returned his defensive coordinator alongside eight defensive starters and eight of the top nine tacklers. Look out for edge rushers Cade Hall and Viliami Fehoko, who have combined for 27 pressures this season and are the two highest-graded defenders by PFF’s overall defensive grades.
Get Well Soon, Jake Haener
Haener is one of the best quarterbacks in the nation. He’s had a legendary career with Fresno, breaking out in a big way last season with 4,000 yards, 33 touchdowns and nine interceptions ratio.
Haener was on pace for a career-high completion rate (71.4%) and had four touchdowns to one pick before he went down. Backup quarterback Fife has had no touchdowns and four picks since Haener went down, continually putting his Bulldogs in unfavorable situations.
The Haener-to-Fife drop off is amplified more when you consider that Fresno State is an offense-first team. The Bulldogs used to rely on Haener to win shootouts, and he did so gracefully last season on the way to a 10-3 record.
The Bulldogs allowed 19 points to UConn in a loss and 40 points to Boise in a loss. Those are two games that can be flipped when Haener is under center.
The Bulldogs are one of the worst defensive lines in the nation (114th in Defensive Line Yards). They also consistently buckle with their backs against the wall (109th in Points Per Opportunity allowed). They’re rushing for just 3.9 YPC and allowing 4.8 YPC.
Without Haener leading the offense and putting up points, this team is lifeless.
San Jose State vs. Fresno State Pick
No matter how lifeless Fresno State has been, there’s some value on the Bulldogs this Saturday.
Sports betting is all about catching teams when they’re undervalued. Fresno is catching almost nine points at home following an 0-5 start against their spread to their season against a rather lackadaisical Spartan offense.
Fife has four interceptions and no touchdowns ratio, but he also has two big-time throws to three turnover-worthy plays and is completing almost 70% of his passes. There should be some positive regression for him.
Additionally, Fresno State is 113th nationally in turnover margin at -7. They should see some positive regression there, as well.
San Jose State likes to win with defense, not offense. Defense travels, and this game will be more of a rock fight than a shootout. If that’s the case, it’s going to be very hard for Cordeiro to cover a double-digit spread.
This spread should be closer to Fresno State +6 than +8.5, and there is value down to +7.5.
Best NCAAF Bet: Fresno State +8.5 (-110) At DraftKings Sportsbook | Buy to +7.5 (-110)
