After a chaotic Week 2 that saw Alabama almost lose — and Texas A&M, Notre Dame and Nebraska actually lose — Week 3 should prove slightly less chaotic. This week’s column will fade two teams who struggled against FCS competition. It will also target a total that could jump up due to injury news in Week 3 college football betting picks and predictions.
Sharp bettors bet early. Identifying games where future movement seems likely allows bettors to secure closing line value, or CLV, relative to the game’s final spread. Taking a team to cover a 2.5-point spread has a much better chance of hitting than taking that same team to cover even a 3.5-point spread. The Week 2 CFB column secured closing-line value in all three games, moving us to 5-1 for CLV and 3-3 for hits this season.
Week 3 College Football Betting Picks & Predictions
Penn State vs. Auburn
Penn State’s offense looks great. Once known for churning out incredible college rushers like Miles Sanders and Saquon Barkley, the Nittany Lions haven’t had a truly elite back for a few seasons. But James Franklin may have struck gold in five-star recruit Nick Singleton. The true freshman scampered for 179 yards and two scores against Ohio — and he did it on just 10 carries. Nittany Lions quarterback Sean Clifford has proven capable under center too. He threw for 282 yards and four touchdowns against Purdue, and he added another 213 and a touchdown against Ohio before Penn State turned to its reserves.
Auburn hasn’t lost yet, but it hasn’t faced a real opponent yet either. The Tigers weren’t expected to have a great 2022 season after consecutive down years in 2020 and 2021, and there is no reason to adjust those priors now. Their lone FBS opponent, San Jose State, nearly lost to FCS Portland State in Week 1. The Tigers beat San Jose State by only 8 points in Week 2. Auburn ended the half with a 3-point deficit.
Look for sharp bettors to bid Penn State well above the current field-goal advantage they have now. Some books already have the Nittany Lions favored by 3.5. Buy this number early before the college football betting markets adjust.
Penn State vs. Auburn Prediction: Penn State -3 (-110 at Caesars)
Georgia vs. South Carolina
The South Carolina Gamecocks lost multiple defensive starters to injuries last week. According to head coach Shane Beamer, the injuries to defensive end Jordan Strachan and linebacker Mo Kaba don’t “look good going forward.” Cornerback Cam Smith also suffered an injury that Beamer wasn’t as pessimistic about, but Smith might not return in time for Saturday’s contest.
A depleted South Carolina defense would allow Georgia to run roughshod on Saturday. Georgia scored 49 points against Oregon in Week 1 and 33 against Samford in Week 2. Their Week 2 performance could’ve yielded more points had head coach Kirby Smart not dialed back after Georgia opened up a 30-point lead in the first half. South Carolina scored 35 against Georgia State and 30 against Arkansas last week. Quarterback Spencer Rattler threw for 376 yards and helped his team rack up 14 fourth quarter points to keep things close.
Georgia’s defense should punish South Carolina’s offense, but the last two meetings of these teams saw totals of 53 and 61. The Bulldogs should exploit a banged-up defense early, but the Gamecocks and Rattler should put enough on the board to get this one over. Lock in this Week 3 number early before injury news causes it to tick up.
Georgia vs. South Carolina Prediction: Over 50.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Vanderbilt vs. Northern Illinois
Vanderbilt may end as the favorite before Saturday’s road game against Northern Illinois kicks off. Last year’s MAC champion has gotten considerably worse since, and the books haven’t sufficiently adjusted their priors. The Huskies lost star wide receiver Trayvon Rudolph — who led the team in yards receiving — to a preseason injury. Star running back and leading rusher Jevyon Ducker transferred to Memphis as well.
NIU started the season poorly, but the Commodores started off strong. The Huskies beat FCS Eastern Illinois by just one score in Week 1. They then lost to Tulsa by a field goal in Week 2. In contrast, the Commodores started the year with a 53-point shellacking of Hawaii in Week 0. They then beat FCS Elon by only 11, but they had entered the second half with an 18-point lead. Last week’s 20-point loss to Wake Forest was discouraging, but the Commodores showed enough in their first two games to warrant a wager in Week 3.
The Huskies opened as 1.5-point home favorites over Vanderbilt. NIU head coach Thomas Hammock is just 6-8-1 against the spread at home since taking over the reins in 2019. His Huskies are just 3-4 against the spread as home favorites as well. In contrast, Vanderbilt head coach Clark Lea is 5-1 against the spread on the road. Two of Vanderbilt’s four wins came in road games, so another road upset could be in the cards on Saturday.
