With non-conference play winding down and conference play rapidly approaching, the college football season is starting to pick up. Last week had a boatload of blowouts by big favorites, although Washington’s big upset win over Michigan State marked a departure from that trend. These early Week 4 college football betting picks and predictions will target two road underdogs and one team total.
Sharp bettors bet early. Identifying games where future movement seems likely allows bettors to secure closing-line value, or CLV, relative to the game’s final spread. Taking a team to cover a 2.5-point spread has a much better chance of hitting than taking that same team to cover even a 3.5-point spread. The Week 3 CFB column secured closing-line value in just one spot, but in a big way — 5.5 points of value on the total for Georgia and South Carolina. All three plays hit despite the negative movement. This column now moves to 6-3 in finding CLV and 6-3 for hits.
Week 4 College Football Betting Picks & Predictions
Charlotte vs. South Carolina: Fade Rattler at Home
Charlotte started the year with three straight losses to unimpressive opponents: Florida Atlantic, William & Mary and Maryland. However, the absence of star quarterback Chris Reynolds is to blame for those losses. Reynolds got hurt early in the second quarter against FAU in Week 0 and missed the next two games. But Reynolds has since returned, and he led the 49ers to a 1-point win over Georgia State by completing 72% of his passes for 401 yards and five touchdowns. He also threw one pick. Reynolds ranks ninth in passing efficiency on the year as well.
South Carolina got out to a similarly bad start. They topped Georgia State by 21 in Week 1 but then lost to Arkansas by 14 and Georgia by 41. The Gamecocks only scored against Georgia after head coach Shane Beamer benched starting quarterback Spencer Rattler. Rattler has struggled this year, and the shared opponent in Georgia State offers a useful illustration. Rattler completed only 62.1% of his passes for 227 yards and one touchdown. Worse, he threw two picks. Rattler has five interceptions to two touchdowns passing on the year.
Charlotte, now a member of Conference USA, likely won’t upset South Carolina. But with the 49ers opening as 23-point underdogs, they just need Reynolds to keep this one close on Saturday. This number should tick down to 21 as sharps realize how much the books are overrating Rattler relative to Reynolds.
Charlotte vs. South Carolina Prediction: Charlotte +23 (-115) at DraftKings
Vanderbilt vs. Alabama: Opening Total Set too Low
The Commodores earned an upset win in Week 3 behind fantastic play by true freshman quarterback A.J. Swann and wide receiver Will Sheppard. The duo combined for two crucial touchdowns as Vanderbilt came back from down two scores to beat Northern Illinois. Although it’s come in a limited sample, Swann now ranks ninth in passing efficiency. That said, the Commodores needed big plays from those two after their defense allowed touchdowns on NIU’s first four drives.
Vanderbilt has struggled defensively for most of the year, and that shouldn’t change on Saturday in Tuscaloosa. Vanderbilt’s games have gone for totals of 73, 73, 70 and 66, cashing the over each time. The books have started to adjust their priors for Vanderbilt’s fast-paced offense and underwhelming defense, but value remains on the total for the program’s matchup with Alabama.
The Crimson Tide stayed under in their opening two matchups against Utah State and Texas, but they went over against Louisiana-Monroe. The first of those contests saw Alabama score 55 and Utah State score nothing, and the Aggies proceeded to score just seven against FCS Weber State the next week. The Crimson Tide then struggled offensively against Texas, but their subsequent 63-point showing against Louisiana-Monroe is encouraging. Bryce Young threw for 236 yards and, more importantly, three scores in the win. With Alabama favored by 40.5 points and facing Arkansas next week, look for Swann and Sheppard to do just enough to push this one over.
Vanderbilt vs. Alabama Prediction: Over 58.5 (-110) at DraftKings
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M: Aggies’ QB Controversy
No. 10 Arkansas looks great this year. But after opening the year with a solid win over Cincinnati and blowout of South Carolina, the Razorbacks stumbled against Bobby Petrino and Missouri State. Still, the Razorbacks rallied late and secured an 11-point win anchored by 21 fourth-quarter points. They now enter their Week 4 contest against Texas A&M as neutral-site underdogs. That might change by kickoff.
While the Aggies have often looked great at home, the recent numbers are less convincing. Texas A&M is 18-10 against the spread since Jimbo Fisher took over in 2018, but A&M is just 1-2 against the spread at home this year. The Aggies failed to cover against FCS Sam Houston State and lost to the Sun Belt’s Appalachian State the next week. Poor passing offense has limited A&M this year — the Aggies rank 123rd in yards passing per game and 102nd in yards per attempt. Miserable quarterback play from Haynes King prompted a change in Week 2, but new signal-caller Max Johnson completed only 50% of his passes for 140 yards and a score against Miami.
In contrast, the Razorbacks have been solid lately. The Razorbacks are 6-2-1 against the spread when playing on the road under Sam Pittman. Arkansas kept things close in Tuscaloosa last year and won in Baton Rouge. They’re also 2-0 against the spread in neutral-side games since he took over. With Razorbacks quarterback K.J. Jefferson ranked 18th in passing efficiency and running back Raheim “Rocket” Sanders ranked fourth in total yards rushing among running backs — and 20th in yards per carry at 6.67, Arkansas has an impressive offense that can keep up with anyone. The team’s weakness has been in the secondary, but the Aggies haven’t shown an ability to do anything through the air.
