We’ve made it through roughly the first third of the NFL season and a group of four players has established themselves as the clear MVP favorites. However, there has still been plenty of movement in the MVP market, and there’s a whole lot of football left to be played. Plenty of things can change over the final 13 weeks of the year, so it’s worth exploring all the potential options and searching for value.
Let’s dive into some of the biggest risers and fallers heading into NFL Week 6.
2022 NFL MVP Odds & Predictions
Riser: Josh Allen +300 to +220
Josh Allen has been considered the MVP favorite since the start of the year, and he put a little more distance between himself and the rest of the pack in Week 5. He put together a monster game, finishing with 424 passing yards and four touchdowns in a 38-3 rout of the Steelers. Buffalo currently sits at 4-1, and they appear poised to finish with one of the best records in the league.
There’s really not much left to say about Allen. He’s one of the best players in the league, if not the best, and he’s playing for a juggernaut. That’s a really good formula for winning the MVP.
The only real question is whether or not he’s viable at his current price tag. Personally, I wouldn’t be betting Allen now if you missed out this offseason. We’re not even a third of the way through the year and there’s danger in taking someone with odds this short with so much football left. Injuries are an unfortunate and undeniable part of the game and no one is immune. I’m obviously very happy if I’m holding an Allen ticket, but I’m not actively looking to get more money down on him.
Recommendation: Hold
Riser: Patrick Mahomes +500 to +450
While Allen is the clear favorite, the group of players chasing him has solidified as well. Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson are the clear challengers, with Justin Herbert a distant fifth.
Mahomes is coming off another strong showing on national TV, racking up 292 passing yards and four touchdowns vs. the Raiders on Monday Night Football. He may not have the same rushing upside as the other top MVP contenders, but he’s arguably the best pure passer in football. He currently leads the league with 15 touchdown passes and is averaging 8.5 adjusted yards per attempt.
Mahomes remains my favorite option in this group for a few reasons. He has the numbers, which is something that could be an issue for Hurts. Hurts has scored plenty of touchdowns with his legs, but he has just four passing touchdowns through the first five games. Can a quarterback really win the MVP award with less than 20 passing touchdowns? I’m skeptical.
Mahomes also plays for one of the best teams in football, which could be an issue for Jackson. The Ravens are definitely not a bad team, but they might be more of a 10-win team than a 12 or 13-win team.
Finally, Mahomes and the Chiefs will take on the Bills next week, which is an absolutely massive showdown. If the Chiefs can come out victorious, Mahomes could make up some serious ground in the MVP race.
Recommendation: Buy
Riser: Geno Smith +20000 to +15000
Is Geno Smith really a contender for the MVP award? No, but his season warrants some attention. He’s been the biggest surprise in football, blossoming from a second-round bust to an unquestioned starter. He’s put together back-to-back monster games and has averaged 8.9 adjusted yards per attempt for the year.
More impressive, Smith leads all quarterbacks in Pro Football Focus grade. That’s borderline unbelievable. If you told me at the beginning of the year that the three highest-graded quarterbacks would be Smith, Allen and Mahomes, I would’ve asked if you were crazy.
It’s an amazing redemption story, but the Seahawks aren’t good enough for Smith to get any real MVP consideration.
Recommendation: Sell
Faller: Aaron Rodgers +2750 to +4000
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ offense have started to show some signs of life. He has six touchdown passes over the past two weeks, but unfortunately, that’s not good enough to make up any ground in the MVP race. Guys like Allen and Mahomes are putting up monster games on a seemingly weekly basis, so just holding serve isn’t enough to get the job done.
Additionally, the Packers suffered an embarrassing loss in London. The Giants aren’t a bad team, but the Packers took the field as nearly 10-point favorites. Rodgers has historically been one of the best quarterbacks in football as a big favorite, but the current iteration of the Packers just doesn’t have the same killer instinct. Their defense isn’t as good as it has been in years past and the offense isn’t explosive enough to make up for it.
Recommendation: Sell
Faller: Matthew Stafford +3750 to +6000
The Rams’ offensive line remains a massive issue. The team lost left tackle Andrew Whitworth from last year’s Super Bowl-winning squad and they have been unable to replace him. Matthew Stafford has been sacked a league-high 21 times and they’ve unsurprisingly struggled against elite pass-rushing teams. Stafford has been sacked 19 times in three games against the Bills, 49ers and Cowboys, and the Rams have unsurprisingly lost all three games.
All that pressure has impacted Stafford’s numbers. He’s thrown a league-high seven interceptions and has managed just five touchdown passes.
Ultimately, there’s no reason to consider Stafford as a buy-low option. Even if the Rams do manage to turn things around, Cooper Kupp seems like the better MVP candidate given where both players’ numbers stand currently.
Recommendation: Sell
Faller: Russell Wilson +6000 to +10000
No player has seen their stock decrease more than Russell Wilson this season. The sandwich mogul was listed at +1500 at the start of the year, but he’s fallen all the way to +10000. His replacement in Seattle has outperformed him in every way, while his teammates have grown increasingly frustrated by his poor play.
I’m not sure what has happened to Wilson, who was one of the most efficient quarterbacks in football during his tenure with Seattle. He reportedly received an injection in his shoulder on Friday, so maybe that will help. It certainly can’t get any worse, but we’ll have to suffer through another primetime Broncos game on Monday Night Football.
Recommendation: Sell
