The race for the NFL MVP award is heating up. We’ve officially made it through Week 7, so we’re nearly at the midway point of the regular season. Josh Allen remains the favorite to take home the hardware, but there has been significant jockeying for position behind him. Some of those viewed as massive challengers at the beginning of the season have fallen by the wayside, while some new contenders have emerged. Let’s dive into some of the biggest risers and fallers for NFL MVP Odds, including Daniel Jones, heading into Week 8. Be sure to check our OddsShopper tool for more NFL best bets.
2022 NFL MVP Odds & Predictions
Riser: Patrick Mahomes +500 to +450
Mahomes struggled two weeks ago against the Bills, but he bounced back in a big way against the 49ers. They racked up 44 points against one of the best defenses in the league, and Mahomes threw for 423 yards and three touchdowns. That brought the Chiefs to 5-2 for the season, putting them behind only the Bills the AFC standings.
Following that performance, Mahomes now leads the NFL in a host of different categories: passing yards (2,159), passing touchdowns (20), touchdown percentage (7.6%), Quarterback Rating (109.5), and QBR (76.8). That’s a pretty impressive resume.
Of course, it’s important to remember that Mahomes holds a one-game advantage over Allen, who was on bye last week. It’s still going to take a misstep from Allen for Mahomes to take home the second MVP award of his career, but he’s firmly in the conversation. I’m not necessarily looking to buy him at his current price tag, but I’m not selling him either.
Recommendation: Hold
Riser: Joe Burrow +3000 to +1600
Here’s what I had to say about Burrow last week:
“That makes Burrow’s Week 7 matchup vs. the Falcons very appealing. They rank just 23rd in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, and they’re dead last in adjusted sack rate. Burrow should be able to post some monster numbers against this unit, so he could take another step forward this week. This is a nice opportunity to buy low.”
It’s good to get one right every once in a while. Burrow did in fact take advantage of an elite matchup, tallying 481 passing yards with three touchdowns. After a slow start to the year, Burrow has now averaged just under 300 passing yards per game with 15 touchdowns and five interceptions.
Burrow draws another advantageous matchup this week vs. the Browns, who rank just 28th in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA. If you missed out on Burrow last week, this could be your last chance to get in on him at a good price tag. If he posts another big performance in Week 8, he could move to less than 10-1.
Recommendation: Buy
Riser: Daniel Jones +11500 to +9000
Is it time to start taking the Giants seriously? They’re currently 6-1 after racking four-straight wins. They haven’t played the most daunting schedule, but only the Eagles have a better record in the NFC.
With that in mind, Jones is becoming an increasingly interesting NFL MVP odds play. He’s doing a lot with very little to work with in New York, who has arguably the worst group of pass-catchers in the league. His passing production has been pretty pedestrian, but he makes up for it with his work on the ground. He racked up 107 yards and a touchdown last week vs. the Jaguars, and he has 343 yards and three scores on the ground for the year.
Of course, Jones remains a serious long shot to actually take home the hardware. The Giants would need to continue to win games at a far better-than-expected clip, but there’s no reason they can’t win at least their next three games. They’ll head on the road to Seattle in Week 8, and they’ll follow that up with home contests vs. the Texans and Lions. If the Giants can move to 9-1 on the year, expect the Jones MVP whispers to get a bit louder.
I expect his odds to continue to drop, but I’m not seriously considering him as a threat to win the award.
Recommendation: Sell
Faller: Lamar Jackson +850 to +1500
The MVP race has had a clear top four this season, with Jackson joining Allen, Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts at the top of the leaderboard. However, Jackson has started to fall out of that group of late. His odds took a slight tumble after losing to the Giants, but they plummeted after the team’s Week 7 win over the Browns. Jackson threw the ball just 16 times, resulting in just 120 yards with zero touchdowns. He added just 59 yards on the ground, making it easily his worst statistical performance of the season.
That leaves him well behind the top quarterbacks in the league statistically, and the Ravens are also far behind the Bills, Eagles, and Chiefs from a team standpoint. They’re just 4-3, so they’re not a serious threat to contend for the best record in the league. That makes it tough to make a case for Jackson to take home the NFL MVP.
Jackson could see his odds shrink in recent weeks, but he’d need some serious help from the top quarterbacks to actually get back into contention. I’m not interested at his current number.
Recommendation: Sell
Faller: Justin Herbert +2050 to +3300
Herbert’s MVP stock took another hit in Week 7, as the Chargers suffered a home loss vs. the Seahawks. Herbert posted his second-straight game with subpar efficiency, racking up just 5.65 adjusted yards per attempt. He’s currently on pace for the worst numbers of his career, which is certainly not what the third-year starter was hoping for.
The one saving grace for Herbert is his insane volume. He leads the league with 308 passing attempts, and he’s had at least 51 pass attempts in back-to-back weeks. That kind of volume obviously gives him the opportunity to make up ground quickly.
Unfortunately, the Chargers just can’t seem to get healthy. Just as Keenan Allen returned to the lineup, Mike Williams suffered an ankle injury that will sideline him for a few weeks. The team is on the bye in Week 8, but it’s no certainty that Williams is back in the lineup in Week 9.
With that in mind, it’s not easy to see Herbert making a big jump any time soon.
Recommendation: Sell
Faller: Kyler Murray +7500 to +10000
I’m tired of writing about Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, who both were obviously big losers in Week 7. Their teams are now below .500, which is a rarity at this point in the year. Brady hasn’t had a losing record after seven games since 2002, while that’s never happened for Rodgers. Even at a more attractive number, I’m not touching this one for Murray’s NFL MVP odds.
Instead, let’s focus on Murray, who was a more unconventional loser last week. His team had a big win on Thursday Night Football, putting up 42 points against the Saints, but Murray wasn’t responsible for most of it. He had just 204 passing yards and one score, and he didn’t provide much production on the ground either.
The good news is that DeAndre Hopkins is back in the lineup, and Murray’s numbers have been much better with his top receiver available historically. The bad news is that his team is just 3-4, and he’s likely too far behind the top quarterbacks to catch up.
Recommendation: Sell
