The Carolina Panthers host the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday afternoon. The big storyline surrounding the Panthers this week is the health of Christian McCaffrey.
McCaffrey did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday and was a limited participant on Friday due to a thigh injury. Based on his and Matt Rhule’s interviews on Friday, it sounds more likely than not that McCaffrey will give it a go on Sunday.
Carolina opened up as 1,5-point favorites before the line flipped this week and made the Cardinals 1,5-point favorites, which is most likely a product of the McCaffrey news, in addition to the public heavily betting on Arizona. As of Friday evening, 82% of the tickets and 69% of the handle are on the Cardinals.
Cardinals vs. Panthers Week 4 NFL Betting Picks and Predictions
Arizona’s Defense Has Gotten Picked Apart
It has been a disappointing start to the Cardinals’ season, which is mostly due to their terrible secondary. Through the first three weeks, Arizona’s defense ranks 30th in the league in passing yards and 31st in points allowed.
Now, to be fair, this defense has had to go against Patrick Mahomes, Derek Carr and Matthew Stafford. However, they have still allowed an average of 281 passing yards and 2.33 passing touchdowns per game.
Those numbers are a huge concern moving forward, regardless of who they have played. This poor start was predictable for a very poor secondary.
Entering the season, PFF had them ranked as the sixth worst secondary in football. They did nothing to address this secondary over the off-season, which is quite the decision considering their coverage grade last season was the ninth worst in the league.
Will this poor defensive play continue against Baker Mayfield and the Carolina Panthers?
Mayfield is Not Great, But He Should Be Good Enough
Betting on Baker Mayfield is always an endeavor that requires a strong stomach, but we should expect him to get It done against Arizona. Baker has been below-average once again this season, but I do not put all the blame on him.
Matt Rhule’s tenure as a head coach in Carolina has been disastrous, and his combination of coaching with Jeff Nixon’s play calling has led to arguably the worst-designed offense in football. The main criticism they have faced is the underutilization of Christian McCaffrey, although he did finally get his work last week with 25 carries.
Despite having one of the most gifted players in the league, Carolina has still called a passing play on 57% of their snaps this season. To put that number into perspective, the Titans have called a passing play on 52.5% of their snaps because they try to utilize Henry as much as possible (and this is including the fact that they were down by roughly a million points to Buffalo by the end of the third quarter in Week 2).
However, this trend is great for those backing Baker props. Obviously, the more you throw the more probable It is to put up bigger numbers regardless of who you are.
Cardinals vs. Panthers Prediction
We are going to be rocking with Baker to throw over 1.5 touchdowns, which is as high as +172 at FanDuel Sportsbook. This is such an appealing number, which is set so high because he has yet to throw for two touchdowns in a game this season.
However, he has not faced a secondary as poor as Arizona’s yet. Arizona has allowed an average of 2.33 throwing touchdowns per game through the first three weeks, and Baker may be able to keep that number north of two.
Baker has faced Arizona twice in his career, throwing for over 230 yards and two touchdowns each time. In my opinion, this prop should still hit regardless of whether CMC plays or not.
Even if he starts, he is likely not at 100% and they may throw the ball more often as a result.
Cardinals vs. Panthers Prediction: Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+172) at FanDuel
