The Chicago Bears will travel to New Jersey for a matchup with the New York Giants on Sunday. Both teams have exceeded expectations — at least record-wise — this season. The winner will even enter Week 5 with three wins. The sportsbooks currently predict the Giants will beat the Bears by a field goal.
Still, the Giants have looked vulnerable. Not having star defensive lineman Leonard Williams last week allowed the Cowboys to cut them up on the ground. He will remain sidelined in Week 4. This could prove especially problematic against a Bears team that leads the NFL in rushing play percentage at 65.4%. That said, the Bears must deal with some injuries of their own — running back David Montgomery injured his leg and will miss the Week 4 contest.
Bears vs. Giants Week 4 NFL Betting Picks & Predictions
Bears vs. Giants Betting Odds
Chicago Relying on the Ground Game
The Chicago Bears have played a unique style of offense. Through three weeks, the Bears have attempted only 45 passes. Two teams, the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals, have attempted more than 45 passing plays per game. Although the Bears have now won two games, their rushing offense doesn't deserve much credit. In Chicago's first win, less than half of the team's yards came on the ground. And although Chicago gashed Houston for 281 yards on the ground, the Bears needed a late-game interception in Texans territory to set up a go-ahead field goal.
Chicago's run-heavy attack has looked efficient and fares well in some advanced metrics. While the Bears rank fifth in team yards per run (5.4), they rank a lowly 28th in offensive defense-adjusted value over average. However, the offensive line ranks ninth in adjusted line yards, and Khalil Herbert ranks third among running backs in defense-adjusted yards over replacement (DYAR). He has significantly outperformed David Montgomery in the metric, as Montgomery ranks 21st. Still, Herbert has benefited from more rest and better situations than Montgomery. The offensive line has generated 4.2 yards before contact per attempt (YBC/A) for Herbert but only 1.7 YBC/A for Montgomery.
Unsurprisingly, Chicago's passing attack has also looked atrocious in its limited volume. Quarterback Justin Fields has completed only 51.1% of his passes for two scores and 4.27 net yards per attempt (NY/A). He has taken 10 sacks and thrown four interceptions. No Bears receiver has more than 12 targets, and wideout Darnell Mooney ranks 46th in DYAR among receivers with between four and 11 targets.
The defense has played relatively well. The Bears rank 11th in defensive DVOA but rank 19th in yards allowed per play (5.7) and 20th in opponent third-down conversion percentage (20%). The pass rush, which led the NFL in adjusted sack rate last year, now ranks just 14th. The defensive line also ranks a lowly 25th in adjusted line yards.
New York's Offense Runs Through Barkley
The New York Giants have beaten some run-heavy teams already this year. They took down the Tennessee Titans, who rank sixth in rushing play percentage, and the Carolina Panthers, who rank eighth. The Giants enter Week 4 at 28th in DVOA despite their 2-1 record. The slight success the Giants have achieved stems from running back Saquon Barkley, who leads the NFL in yards from scrimmage (408). The next-best Giant, Sterling Shepard, ranks 83rd with 154 scrimmage yards and is now out for the year. Jones ranks fourth on the team in scrimmage yards with 125.
Barkley has succeeded despite mediocre play from his teammates. New York's offensive line ranks 17th in adjusted line yards and has given Barkley only 2 YBC/A. Left tackle Andrew Thomas owns an elite PFF grade of 90.1, but none of New York's other linemen own grades above 55, and two own grades below 50. Quarterback Daniel Jones has completed a solid 64.1% of his passes for three touchdowns and 4.64 NY/A, but he has taken 13 sacks and thrown a pair of picks. Barkley accounts for 18.6% of Jones' net passing yards.
New York's defense has fared worse than the offense. The unit ranks 28th in defensive DVOA, 24th in yards allowed per play (5.9) and 28th in yards allowed per rush (5.3). Entering Week 2, the Giants had entered Week 2 ranked a much more respectable 23rd in yards allowed per rush (4.9), but facing a solid Cowboys running game without defensive lineman Leonard Williams hurt them significantly. With Williams out again, the Giants could get gashed on the ground.
Bears vs. Giants Prediction
The total for Justin Fields' receiving yards closed at 169.5 last week. Heading into Week 4, that number now sits at a minuscule 147.5. Fields is the only quarterback to have started at least three games this year and average fewer than 148 passing yards. Every NFL team except Chicago averages more than 148 passing yards per game. Although Fields is yet to throw for 148 yards in a single game this year, he averaged 180 passing yards per game as a starter last year.
It feels dangerous to buy the over on Fields' passing yards, but it makes sense. David Montgomery's injury leaves Chicago with just two healthy running backs, Khalil Herbert and rookie Trestan Ebner, on the 53-man roster. Force-feeding Herbert is a huge risk without meaningful depth behind him, and Ebner may have lost some of the coaching staff's confidence after a fumble last week. Now that the Bears have had a full week to plan for life without Montgomery, expect them to lean a bit more on the passing game. It won't take much for Fields to cash the over against this incredibly low total. A sportsbook may not post a quarterback passing prop this low again.
Bears vs. Giants Prediction: Justin Fields Over 147.5 Passing Yards (-115) at DraftKings
Bears vs. Giants OddsShopper Model Prediction
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