The Houston Texans host the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday. The big storyline surrounding the Chargers this week is their health, or lack thereof.
While a few of the Chargers will be healthier this week, including Justin Herbert, J.C. Jackson and Corey Linsley, they are still expected to be without Rashawn Slater, Keenan Allen and Joey Bosa. That is a lot of talent sitting on the sidelines.
Los Angeles opened up as a six-point favorite and has since been bet down to five-and-a-half. As of Friday evening, 67% of the tickets and 51% of the handle are on the Chargers.
Chargers vs. Texans Week 4 NFL Betting Picks and Predictions
Offensive Line Injuries Could Benefit This Austin Ekeler Prop
The Chargers are going to be missing LT Rashawn Slater and although Corey Linsley is expected to start, he likely will not be fully healthy. When healthy, Linsley is a solid lineman.
These offensive line problems will benefit Austin Ekeler‘s receiving yards prop, which is currently set at 39.5. He has gone over this number in each of the last two weeks and we should expect more of the same on Sunday.
Herbert has been scrambling for his life behind this offensive line which has led to a lot of check downs to Ekeler. Through the first three weeks, he leads the Chargers in targets (22) and receptions (21), and is third in receiving yards (139).
Ekeler is one of the better dual-threat running backs in the league and always in play for a big gam on the ground or through the air. In his one career game against the Texans in 2019, Ekeler had seven receptions for 45 yards.
We should expect all of these trends to continue against a poor Houston defense.
Houston’s Defense Due for Bad Outing
The Texans rank 12th in the league in Points Against this season. Nevertheless, that ranking is wildly out of context as each of their first three opponents has been terrible on the offensive side of the ball.
They took on the Colts and Matt Ryan in his first career start with a new franchise. That relationship has not been successful thus far, as the Colts rank last in the league in points.
Houston traveled to Denver the following week and faced a team that relies heavily on its defense. Like the Colts, the Broncos have struggled to score as they rank 31st in points in the NFL.
Last week, the Texans faced a Bears team that has a quarterback who can’t throw the football. Chicago unsurprisingly ranks 20th in the league in points.
The Texans are in for a rude awakening on Sunday when they face a high-powered, fast-paced Chargers offense. The regression for Houston’s defense is finally set to arrive, as they have been outplaying their projections due to the schedule thus far.
PFF ranked Houston’s defensive line as the third-worst in football entering this season. Their linebacking corps were ranked the second-worst and their secondary as the worst.
Chargers vs. Texans Prediction
Los Angeles’ offense should click in this game despite the injuries. Specifically, we are going to target Austin Ekeler to go over his receiving yards prop.
He has been the primary target in this offense through the first three weeks and has gone over 39.5 each of the last two games. Additionally, Ekeler went over this total in his lone career game against Houston.
As mentioned, this Texans defense is due for some regression. On top of that, they have still struggled against running backs who can catch the ball.
In Week 1, Nyheim Hines had six catches for 50 yards. If Hines, who is just a third-down back, can get over this number, then so can a featured dual-threat running back like Ekeler.
Chargers vs. Texans Prediction: Austin Ekeler Over 39.5 Receiving Yards at DraftKings
